( Reuters ) New York - The New York Times is reporting that Goldman Sachs has completed its acquisition of the Atlantic Ocean, stunning the other remaining investment bank. An overpaid spokesperson for the firm has confirmed the story to The Times, in exchange for " above the fold " placement of his daughter's wedding announcement. A no-longer relevant competitor also confirmed the acquisition, saying " We were wondering why everybody at that place had such a big yacht! - now we know they've been using them to drop flags overboard, staking their claim on the ocean floor." Art Cashin, Director of Floor Trading believes this could be a sign of a market bottom - or the apocalypse; he's not exactly sure until the Transports confirm.; Steve Grasso, Floor Trader at the NYSE, refused to comment until the cameras were on him. Revisionist historian Jim Cramer proclaimed he told everyone this was going to happen, however, The Times could find no evidence of his claim. Goldman will control access to the Atlantic Ocean from New York and Washington D.C, both which it already owns. (more)
morrise
· 5 months ago
Ha Ha...Great
toad37
· 5 months ago
Keep 'em coming, these are great!
Mike_from_ATL
· 5 months ago
Any word when the Chinese Army will complete their acquistion of the Pacific?
I’d like to thank those of you who supported my return to The Slope. In response to the question – my current trading:
I have the following core holdings PWE – a Canadian Oil Trust – an oil play, a dividend income play and a play on the Canadian Dollar which is moving once again toward parity. My holding here is more than a year. I day trade PWE regularly to reduce the initial basis of $26 Now down to $6 (as adjusted by gains over losses in day trading)
INTC – Intel – I have Long term Calls (deep in the money) Jan 2011 (VNLAB) 10’s. I day trade INTC regularly to reduce the initial basis of $5 to now below $2
XTXI - Crosstex Energy, Inc. is engaged, through its subsidiaries, in the gathering, transmission, treating, processing and marketing of natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL). My original basis adjusted for additions in holdings was $3.50. It is a “high risk” investment. I day trade XTXI and have now reduced my basis to $.75
GE – I have substantial long term calls Jan 2011 $7.50 calls with an initial basis of $6.00 and I have day traded that down to about $3.50
Finally, I have a “high risk position” in CLWR – clearwire – a play on Sprint, Intel and a coalition of other major players in WiMax and 4G.
In March, when RIMM was down below $40 – I purchased in the money calls when it was at $38 and rode the price up to $58.
I have a position in Yahoo – I’m nowhere, it’s nowhere – but something has to happen – I don’t use margin….so no cost to hold.
Finally, I have had calls in PALM for the past 2+ years, constantly rolling over near expiration to longer terms. My initial basis was at $9 (a post large distribution to shareholder price) rode it down to $4 and I hope to finally close this position when Verizon announces the “Pre” has been added to their network.
I have 4 accounts - only one is a trading account - the remainder is in cash and cash like securities representing 55% of my liquid net worth.
I am currently in Banks Idaho, Kayaking Whitewater, Living on the Road - with my new shelter dog Jackpot - Whose picture will be my current - I will be day trading PWE and XTXI as they make nice % moves - watching the tick and volume over the past year has allowed me to trade without thinking - sometime reacting (only) to price and volume - along with (macro) Technical Analysis - I never watch more than 2 to 5 securities during a trading period. My best to you all....good trading
Brinkley
· 5 months ago
Hi Peachin-- I believe I became active here after your departure, so I don't share the history you obviously have with many on the Slope, but I look forward to your contributions. I can understand how you've missed being part of a trading community-- this business of ours can be quite isolating at times, and the interaction with other traders can be both intellectually and socially nourishing. At least I know that I've enjoyed (and benefited from) my involvement both here and on Moo's blog. Welcome!
Ashok
· 5 months ago
Very good to see you again, peachin.........hope all is well with you..!
HokieJCH
· 5 months ago
Glad to see you back.
toad37
· 5 months ago
Whitewater rafting is a blast. Can you give me a quick little lesson on how you use the tick and volume to trade?
peachin
· 5 months ago
An example - a trading pattern I learned from a former blogger Marilyn - a man who loved this pattern and I love it also...it is accurate more than 50% of the time, more than 60 probably and gives you instant feed back within 3 -15 minute cycles. Called "Break Out Bottom" (BOB) and believe it, or not turn it upside down and it becomes a "break down top"
Reading it now, thanks bro! BTW, my mom is from Eagle, Dad from Meridian/Boise. I was born in Boise and lived in Meridian for 4 years as well. My Grandpa lived in a little place called New Meadows near McCall if you know that area...
MovinFwd
· 5 months ago
thx +1
YogiBehr
· 5 months ago
a beginner thanks you for the helpful "what to look fors"
maple
· 5 months ago
That was from the Marlyn Trades blog - he was called back to engineering.
Brinkley
· 5 months ago
Good morning, Toad-- my son just went whitewater rafting on the Nile, "grade 5" (I'd rather not know this), and I'm afraid bungee jumping as well : ( . They apparently flipped numerous times before pausing for a relaxing swim in calm waters-- until their Ugandan guide frantically called them back, informing them that they were in a favorite crocodile hang-out. He's finally home Wednesday; I can't wait!
toad37
· 5 months ago
Oh Wow!! Good morning Brinkley! Favorite crocodile hang-out??!! Yikes! ;-)
I bet he is having the time of his life though... I know I did back in '92 when I did an Outward Bound trip in the High Sierras.
I actually just sent you a follow up email from last week. Thanks in advance for any feedback at any time.
Have a great Sunday!!
YogiBehr
· 5 months ago
We ran some "4"s two years ago on the American River....those were harsh enough...5's must be amazing!!
DrNo
· 5 months ago
Welcome back peachin ,i hope you stay around for a while,I still have not had a HORNITOS.
Bear
· 5 months ago
welcome back ...
Giledain
· 5 months ago
I like the Canadian concept as well, am playing it via ENY.
julia1
· 5 months ago
Tim, catching up on your blog and seems like there were some tough times this week. I have an idea thought I would throw out there. Have you ever considered having a cohost? It might lighten your load some.
I enjoy reading your thoughts so don't want you to get burned out and quit! But also realize you feel more comfortable taking short positions. It's my impression that Brinkley feels more comfortable with long positions. I enjoy reading Brinkley's posts and she is a good balance with your comments, for me. I have no idea if you or she would be interested in sharing your blog, but it might be fun to read two opinions and it might lighten your load. In my work I have to share space with people from different perspectives so this could just be my bias, but thought I'd share my idea in case it's something you might be interested in.
Sorry about all the posts, but had to verify account and somehow posted multiple times. Also Peachin from what I remember it was your posts about your sexual attraction to 15 yo that made some of us uncomfortable, not trading posts.
Hard_Rain
· 5 months ago
Yes, from my perspective, Tim's view of the market is quite a contrast to mine so the Slope is very helpful in maintaining balance in my trading. Hence, I support anything to keep this site alive and encourage Tim to speak up if/when he needs help.
Whether or not brinkley serves as cohost or continues in her current role, I really appreciate her posts.
GemmaStar
· 5 months ago
I think everyone appreciates Brinkley's posts -- and loves Tim's ideas and his ENERGY!
chartsandcoffee
· 5 months ago
I thought you guys would enjoy a Ned reporting. I was actually giving the guy a fair shake by letting him post on my blog and he decided to stop by with a nasty comment saying "your blog sucks you suck etc." My first blocked user.
wex
· 5 months ago
Your first. You must be so proud.
Bear
· 5 months ago
After some technical analysis this weekend, I basically still see (1) a secular bear (the big trend), (2) a cyclical bull within that big trend, and (3) the short term still needs to prove its direction (as the markets have become quickly overbought). The $SPX testing 1015 would be my next mid-term upside test for the cyclical bull (the first 38% retracement of the bear market drop in the last 13 months).
Long-Term
I began looking at my monthly charts on Thursday. They still look pretty bad to me with the trend way down, and they still support the conclusion that the markets remain in a secular bear market (e.g., technical perspective). Furthermore, with the economy in the toilet and average people still losing jobs and homes (e.g., fundamentals), we are beginning the first phases of the L-shaped economy (at least that’s my bias). The markets could progress down much further (well below the current $SPX 666.79 low from March 2009).
Mid-Term
John Murphy (a very skilled and well-respected market technician) commented this weekend that cyclical bull markets will retrace (on average) about 50% and can take up to a year. He suggested that the 50% retrace area is about 1000 on the $SPX. Therefore, technically I suspect (and have the bias) that 1015 is going to be a difficult area on the $SPX chart (just a hunch) because it is the first (standard) fib retracement that the $SPX will encounter in this cyclical bull market. I would also note that I have personally emailed John Murphy as to how he arrived at his calculation of 1000 on the $SPX. When he responds to that question, I will share it here.
Short-Term
The spike up this past week still looks like a Max Pain type of event (specifically timed for OpEx). The $SPX at 956 is the next area to watch on the upside (imo). Overall though, I have to wonder if it will become more of a stock pickers market for the rest of the summer (as opposed to “all stocks rising” like in March and April 2009). And traders have some help with that. The current earnings season is already beginning to reveal some of the stronger (like GS) and weaker stocks (like BAC).
On my way out for a little while, but caught your post-- looks like you've been hard at work! Murphy's 1000 area is actually an approximate 38.2% retracement from the 2007 high to the March 2009 low, if I recall correctly (don't have my charting software up and no time to verify). That same level *should* (again, if memory serves) come close to a 50% retrace from where major support was broken and the freefall really commenced, back in August or September of '08--which could be the projection he's using. I'll try to post a chart when I get back. Nice post.
Bear
· 5 months ago
Thanks D ...
I am getting back into posting my own technical analysis after laying low for a while (I also posted a long analysis last Sunday) ... I did try to re-calculate that 1,000 figure using various start and end points for the 50% retrace ... I did not get a match so that's why I emailed Murphy.
I am sure that the stockcharts people will get back to me with an answer to my question ... or John Murphy may post a response to my question in one of his messages to subscribers (that is what he did last time I posed a question) ...
Brinkley
· 5 months ago
I think that the 50% retracement was probably taken from where he sees the breakdown starting, rather than at the 2007 high. Here are the fibs drawn from a horizontal support level that once broken, set the plunge in motion. That puts the 50% @ 999.
And here's the fib retracement from the 2007 high, placing Murphy's 1,000 law @ the 38.2% fib (kind of neat) and the 61.8% fib @ the 1,229 I've mentioned, which is also the projected resolution of the inverse h/s should it confirm.
Yup ... those are generally the levels I am watching ...
I am not hard and fast on the target number (e.g., anywhere from 999 to 1015) ... but I will watch the tape and its price action more closely when and if the markets get to that range ...
With so many H&S patterns failing recently ... I have to wonder how successful the inverse H&S might be ...
Gary_L
· 5 months ago
Good stuff, Fish. I have a line drawn at 1007 I'll be watching. And don't forget, we have the neckline of the IHS to cross too.
I'm curious about the topmost trendline on the $NYA200R chart. Did you put that there thinking it was the top?
Bear
· 5 months ago
nope ... just creating my own hand drawn fan as the move up progresses ... we'll see what happens with that ...
molecool
· 5 months ago
Is T.K. still crying in his pillow or why isn't there a post tonight?
mikevadon
· 5 months ago
I also wanted to add that there is still hope for the head and shoulders pattern. As was pointed out on Evilspeculator, the pattern can have 4 or more shoulders. We are on the 4th shoulder right now.
The key to the pattern is if the right side mirrors the left side. So ask yourself, does the left side look like the right side if we flipped it over?
tgarfield
· 5 months ago
I waiting for he sunday night x-trends gap down mondya call. He has written one for two months I believe. If he doesn't write one I expect the market to gap down.
mikevadon
· 5 months ago
Tim,
In looking at the charts, I can see there is a major resistance level at 950 which has been pointed out on this blog previously as well as many others. I can also see the most recent downturn may have been a bull flag and its obvious to me that there was a downward trending channel on the spy. The top of this channel was taken out last week.
If the index gets past 950, then there is a good chance it will get back to the point before the financial crisis really began which is between 1200-1400. One of the reasons the SPX crashed, in my opinion, was because of an uptrending TED spread which measures lenders willingness to lend money. Many companies essentially run on credit and now they have that credit tap again, can keep running. Witness LVLT which has made no money over the last several years and is fueled by credit.
The TED spread is no longer in an uptrend and has reached 2007 levels. Junk companies like CAR and LVLT can now get money to their heart's desire.
Your portfolio is essentially puts and double/triple short etfs. I dont see any long positions. If the index goes above 950 and keeps going, then I am guessing you are going to have large losses.
While I see a case for the S&P running to 1200-1400, I also see a case where the index could pivot right now and move to new lower lows. "Black Swan" events typically happen between August and November such as 9/11. Im not hoping for one to happen, but these months seem especially vulnerable when looking back through history.
My question to you is how are you handling this risk and what are your exact feelings? What are you going to do if the SPX goes over 950?
Keeping things in perspective... Mark Hansen aka Mr. Mortgage has a new blog post and some new numbers. April to May notice of default was up 5% to a new high. This represents an 83% year over year change. Bank owned inventory increased 6.2%.
"Trading was more teachable than I ever imagined. Even though I was the only one who thought it was teachable ... it was teachable beyond my wildest imagination." - Richard Dennis
From the currency side of things, it looks pretty bullish to me.... I will be buying the dips until I see something change. EUR/USD is setting up nicely for a retest of 1,000 SPX and then a drop at the end of August. We just are now breaking out of the bull flag and we should run up to near the highs before the drop. In the Fall, bears will be back with a vengance, but dont be a premature bear or you will get slaughtered... again
FWEIW, Here's my candidate short list going into Monday so far:
ICLR SNDK FFIV MMM AXP AMZN SLE PCP PX AMT AOC KFT BCS DIS GE AA WU KO QLGC WHR SWK VFC FDX
toad37
· 5 months ago
Greg, thanks for the list. Should be and interesting week. So you had an old fashioned crabfest this weekend?
Greg
· 5 months ago
We totally did. I shelled 10 this morning. Crab bisk tomorrow,
Gregory G McGary Sent via iPhone 3Gs
toad37
· 5 months ago
Nummers! Watch that cholesterol though :-)
Greg
· 5 months ago
I just ate one, but will have a few more.
Gregory G McGary Sent via iPhone 3Gs
Insect Overlord
· 5 months ago
I was going to get a put on AMZN as it looks positively BEAUTIFUL in my opinion. But having earnings so close I decided not to, since I've noticed that often companies tend to run up in anticipation of earnings. I could be wrong. In fact, I probably am.
Greg
· 5 months ago
I made a bunch on AMZN on the last swing low. I'm watching to short it again.
Gregory G McGary Sent via iPhone 3Gs
toad37
· 5 months ago
If we do fall from here, Fujisan from Evil Speculator sure made an early amazing call....
ThetaGuy
· 5 months ago
She's pretty good. Damn good in fact.
katzo7
· 5 months ago
Here are my thoughts about Monday and/or Tuesday. This one is a hard one to call, and I am no 100% sure of it. Maybe it will just be a good read. LOL http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/19/spx-500-...
molecool
· 5 months ago
Oh, now you're pimping that blog over here? LOL!!
katzo7
· 5 months ago
First BWM is not a blog but a place to publish research and is open to anyone for free to read and to even join and publish there own research. Second if I published that kind of lengthy research on your blog it would occupy massive amounts of space. Third do you feel that you have been put in charge of the financial bloggisphere world? In that case, you might want to go to Moo and Atilla's site and police there too. Don't worry, you will get a nice shiny badge. LOLOL
syzlakk
· 5 months ago
he is the new NED. Makes me wonder why they keep pimping a blog nobody wnats to go at... maybe get a clue?
viscous
· 5 months ago
WHAT?????????
Giledain
· 5 months ago
What?
viscous
· 5 months ago
Exactly!
MovinFwd
· 5 months ago
TK - Up early or up all night? Ya - those were definitely the "Guys with the pipe wrenches". Edit - A-Ha. After further thought I see that you/we have your/our own tool/tools.
Good trading to you. And thanks for expanding my mind.
Tazman
· 5 months ago
You are up early....Could the first part of the video be Ms Market and you?
She will come back to you TK.......
molecool
· 5 months ago
Could you possibly get any more nerdy? Jeeezzz - LOL ;-)
There was a double bottom in arithmetic indices. One of the standout was the VLE the Value Line Arithmetic Index. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VLE&p=D&yr=1&... which had a well defined double bottom (Nov/March)
Brinkley
· 5 months ago
Yep, and also keep in mind the Nasdaq indices put in a double bottom and have been leading this move. The $SPX is the more critical one to monitor IMO, but it's worth noting that there are segments of the market that have indeed had a retest.
I've heard some technicians on CNBC suggest that the March low was also a violent retest of the 2008 lows for the SPX, albeit a lower low. Alternatively, the inverse H+S pattern that you presented yesterday is another potential bottoming formation.
julia1
· 5 months ago
.
julia1
· 5 months ago
.
julia1
· 5 months ago
.
CastorTroy
· 5 months ago
I expect a shallow pullback to the 910 area at the very least, a meager 38.2% retracement. Will be looking at whether we see stabilization in the area for an assault on 960 or further weakness http://tinyurl.com/l62rdk
I just hope the market has as much trouble hitting new highs as I have trouble hitting the high note in that video. (I couldn't hit that high note even if I were kicked in the balls)
BTW: Atilla's screen name was A-ha on the traders-talk message board.
Gary_L
· 5 months ago
Brinkley, if you have a chance, will you cast your eye upon UNP? It has breached the neckline once without confirming, and pulled back. If the pattern is still valid, it is now confirmed, with a target of 73.47.
If we get a pullback below the 3% level, or the neckline, will the pattern still be valid?
Also, CSX has confirmed. Same question regarding a pullback.
Thank you.
Bear
· 5 months ago
looks like a triple top break out to me ... not an H&S ...
if the market stays bullish ... it looks like a good pull back buy (a bit extended here though) ... it has relative strength to the $SPX
Gary_L
· 5 months ago
Yeah, I'm counting on a pullback. Anything stretched out like that, I want to short, but I'm not sure it's worth the effort.
TV107
· 5 months ago
thanks for the video saw 5 hrs of vhi's top 100 songs of the 80s yesterday and never knew the video for take on me had to do with a cartoon/human interaction until yesterday
and then u post a parody of it now ill always think of these words when listening to this song: "pipe wrench fight......"
steveo77
· 5 months ago
I wanted to post this Excel spreadsheet and txt file that can be imported into Prophet charts watchlist directly (and probably others), because, well, I think it is a cool format to collaborate with.
OK--All you "Leechier than thou" peeps, here it is, without further ado. List of tickers that TK gave me permission to re-use in a beefed up format. Tim posted these today as trade ideas. Not only do you get the list with more information, you can download it in Excel format and also in Txt format. The txt file can be imported directed into a Prophet charts watchlist.
These mesh with the downloadable Excel and txt watchlist files I posted earlier.
Mike_from_ATL
· 5 months ago
After your valuable lesson, I'm going to disappoint you. I'm sticking with either TWM or SDS.
I may try SPXU (the triple short)....... maybe
By the way, an exact pictual of your roadmap that you describe last week is the period around Jan 5 on the S&P. WOW
Greg
· 5 months ago
The ultras are ok to day trade, but I usually avoid them.
Gregory G McGary Sent via iPhone 3Gs
Aesus
· 5 months ago
CIT gets funding. 3 bil to keep it out of bankruptcy. Sounds like the major bondholders just swapped debt for longer term debt to lenthen their timeframe to get paid back. Most likely the Govt will step in now and sign off and allow CIT to borrow off of previous restricted assets. Win win for all: Obama looks like he played tough. CIT bondholders put of day of reckoning and buy hope. But wait, what about the equity holders? Sort of like rolling a losing long option to the next month. Wonder what this will do to the futures.
YogiBehr
· 5 months ago
Last I read CIT was knocking on the doors of GS and JPM asking for loot to keep them afloat...sounds like it happened.
Aesus
· 5 months ago
Actually, they were being tapped for DIP financing. This group was led by PIMCO and was made up of the largest bondholders. GS held a LOC for about 3 bil so I don't think they are complaining. Devil is in the details though.
YogiBehr
· 5 months ago
K...I read that on friday I think so it wouldn't surprise me if that totally change by now...plus I have been busy doing stuff so haven't really followed up on it. Thanks for the info.
Rosabarba
· 5 months ago
The Sunday answer appears to be: Nothing.
At least there's some symmetry there. The market didn't seem to care when CIT was pricing for BK mid-week.
Kind of odd to this country boy. I couldn't help thinking this was a much bigger deal than the market did (in both directions).
Aesus
· 5 months ago
I was expecting more of a positive response in the futures. I was expecting that the symmetry you point out would have been washed away with all the newfound optimism out there. Tomorrow and Tuesday: if the market advances will lead me to believe that for the short term, last weeks strength was not an aberration. I am expecting more sell pressure tomorrow as index arbs reposition from the buying in they did last week. Volume has truly been pathetic for both longs and shorts. We shall see.
The author writes a weekly roundup which might be a good concise read.
pikertrader
· 5 months ago
Tim takes for putting this song in my head all day!!!!!
a look at the last week bear slaughter, H&S fake out and how breadth was showing signs the market was turning http://tinyurl.com/mb5b26
aviat72
· 5 months ago
While watching the intra-day action the 870 level was repelled multiple times, each time in almost a V fashion. There was no basing or congestion, it was sharp V bounces. To me that was a clear indication that something more was needed to get it though that level.
Another problem was that in the anticipation of the coming break of the H&S, half the world and their uncles were short. You are supposed to go short after a break of the neckline, but a large number did not wait. Then they were forced to cover when earnings came out better.
The break of major support requires some long side capitulation. Shorts by themselves can not take most market down; they need help from smart longs. When even CNBC is talking about the bearish pattern, then the chance of it to succeed are low; absence some catalyst for long side selling.
EDC
· 5 months ago
great post
steveo77
· 5 months ago
Boatload O' Bear Charts....Even for Bulls ought to check out the bearish case. 5 of these companies report this week.
These mesh with the downloadable Excel and txt watchlist files I posted earlier.
fares2008
· 5 months ago
How can I trade before 8am, I see trade starting at 4am or so, I hear most company start at 8am est. Does anyone know a company that start trading before. thanks
MovinFwd
· 5 months ago
fares2008 - What I am aware of in USA : The stock exchanges are open from 9:30 AM EST till 4:00 PM EST. The Futures such as /ES trade from 6:00 PM EST Sunday thru till 4:15 PM EST Friday, with a couple of breaks each day, one at 4:15 PM EST, and one at 11:00 PM EST.
So possibly you could see about futures or overseas markets.
Best Regards
fares2008
· 5 months ago
I know what you are saying, my question is I want to trade stocks before 8am est time, like premarket.
fatcontroller
· 5 months ago
Interactive Brokers definitely trades from 7 AM. Very likely much earlier. I had orders filled around 6 AM.
YogiBehr
· 5 months ago
Off MSN
Corporate heavyweights reporting this week should sharpen investors' view of the economy. Reports on the April-June quarter are expected from American Express Co., aerospace manufacturer Boeing Co., industrial equipment maker Caterpillar Inc. and drug maker Merck & Co. Key consumer companies Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Coca-Cola Co., eBay Inc., PepsiCo Inc. and Starbucks Corp. are also due to report.
As a person who is trying hard to learn a good foundation in trading skills, I was thinking about maybe just focusing on a few charts for a while. I need to develop a keen sense of S/R levels, candlestick reversals, volume, entry/exits, etc... Perhaps just focusing on these charts would help me lose that feeling of running around like a chicken with his head cut off that I seem to be having. Here are the charts I was thinking about- The Dollar, oil, SPY, IWM, and the transports. Does this make any sense? Of all the gazillion things that goes on in the market each day, it is overwhelming for me on where to put my focus. Thanks for any feedback...
MovinFwd
· 5 months ago
Your thoughts make a lot of sense. This is exactly what I did a few months back. A person can overextend themselves trying to find "that one just right trade". And then the trade entry is gone before you can put on the trade because you/I are off looking at all the other charts, especially in this market. Get a base of charts that you look at every day. Every day the same charts. With support/resistance/trend lines/candlestick reversals-continuations; everything you said (keep it simple, basic charting, when you get good at it it should jump right off the chart or else it is not a trade. Quality of trades, not quantity of trades.
I spent 6 months figuring out which actual symbols I would look at every day. Stocks with high enough volume, decent stocks, stocks that move in a sine wave not all jumpy and unpredictable (I dislike using that word, but don't know a better word).
Think about where the money is going. Into this and out of that. Follow the money. The stocks you want to follow may "rotate from one market segment to another. That is what Investools is good for. (Other people may know a better way to follow the money path (segment rotation) for less cost.)
Start smaller and build on your success.
Just my 2 cents. Would like to hear from others on this same subject myself.
Happy trading T.
Disclaimer - My hat is off to Tim Knight for being able to follow and maintain a multitude of stocks.
toad37
· 5 months ago
Thanks for the feedback friend, good stuff. I'm tired of chasing my tail. I'm putting the time and energy in, I'm just not being efficient.
Rd99Hse1
· 5 months ago
I know exactly where you're at. I've begun a good focus on $IP and $DIA options, but of course use the SPY to judge as well. IP is part of the $XMI, Major Market Index.
Very good idea to learn focus - AND I have a new, max 3 positions rule. Everything else is just noise. A good way to keep it real, from a n00b here as well, is to learn to enter a position where you can manage your risk from. Make it a personalized trade, not just the market's.
...this is clearly someone elses market. I am but a leech.
toad37
· 5 months ago
I think we're on to something bro. It's trying to make the whole experience a little more intimate... Makes a ton of sense from and educational standpoint, and disciplined too. No more chasing trades left and right.
Thanks for sharing, good stuff!
MovinFwd
· 5 months ago
Yes exactly. Thanks for reminding me. Efficient and effective.
Ashok
· 5 months ago
Ask yourself who the leading names are that come to mind.....leading brand names, that everyone uses, every day.......and 2 will pop up immediately....leaders too......GOOG and AAPL.......you could add GS too, but I guess there's too much hate going for that name.....pick just a couple of indicators that you trust.......and that's it.......you're ready to roll.....
toad37
· 5 months ago
That makes sense Ashok, keep it simple wins every time. Thanks my friend. I start simplifying this week.
Less Is More!
barebull
· 5 months ago
i know a guy who just traded one stock and did pretty well
toad37
· 5 months ago
When you think about it, it makes sense. Thanks...
MovinFwd
· 5 months ago
I did that for a while. Only traded POT. No joking. Figured that if I couldn't see the moves on that stock......
Some lines I made on POT as things developed: http://www.screencast.com/users/MovinFwd/folder... Now ask yourself, would you have taken those trades. And what lines should be drawn out into the future. That is why the chart has extend (to the right) on it. We are always working on the "hard right edge" of the chart but looking into the now and future for low risk high probabilty trades points.
Sorry barebull. This turned into more than just a small agreement to you that I had planned. But I just left it here attached to you.
Peachin--Welcome back. Congrats on your shelter dog adoption. This dog (beautiful, intelligent and many other superlatives) looks like it has a slice or two Catahoula Spotted Leopard in its DNA.
JWBlack
· 5 months ago
Anyone know what who-shall-not-be-named is saying lately over at X trends? Is he still short and claiming to make millions? Tim K's honesty is such a breath of fresh air.
TraderTamas
· 5 months ago
I haven't been to that blog in months and I don't plan on ever setting eyes on it again.
Bad habits are learned there.
Brinkley
· 5 months ago
Amen.
dumbpainter
· 5 months ago
I'm short /es for some scalps inside this sunday night sym. triangle ;)
Little ending diagn. for crude for a healthy pullback tomorrow?
Well it looks time to reverse course. Here's an old KOSPI chart from Friday EOD. We are now at 1467 this morning. Any retracement that gets support above 1445 and I'm going in LONG.
Steady as she goes in Asia. Everything that's open is green. +0.5-1.0% except for Kospi up around 2%.
Some big news out of China with a State Agency even admitting that a property development that goes up in price over 6% in a week is a little TOO MUCH. LOL.
Here we go again with the futures. The morning is still a ways away. I'll just never know what is driving this frenzy upward.
Ben
· 5 months ago
IO... it's the currency markets. The Euro is breaking out, the U.S. Dollar is breaking down. Not much more to it than that at the moment.
Modab
· 5 months ago
Euro Has resistance around the 1.4180 level...... A clean break above 1.4200 and we could see 1.4615 or so...those are the long term fib lines and the EUR/USD has been sticking to TA and fibs pretty well.
It is a little early for the real move to start now....we should see the real move sometime tonight 11pm Pacific time.....
Ben
· 5 months ago
As usual, I'll miss it. One of the few East Coast disadvantages... well past my bedtime. I saw 1.4183 print and quickly reverse. If it should breakout, I'd appreciate you not letting it get too extended by morning, Modab. TIA
Modab
· 5 months ago
I taking the short side. Great risk reward right here. Should come back down before 11pm and well see from there.
heywally
· 5 months ago
CIT funding, no new bad news, no big economic releases tomorrow, earnings have been decent, more on the way, momentum has been up, big resistance level in S&P could be broken, overseas up. This is the first sunday in a while when the futures have been up at this hour.
Ali
· 5 months ago
Hang Seng Index has made a new high for the year. It has busted through the weekly 200MA, which acted as resistance last month. Bullish if it can hold this level to the close.
Someone threw up a chart of EWH earlier, suggesting a short. I'd be careful taking that trade right now.
jayinasia
· 5 months ago
Same with Korea. Maybe it's time to play the Asian laggards. Catch up.
One draw back is the AUD. It's just now trying to break out of it's channel.
jacksoo
· 5 months ago
fallen off that ch top 3times since June - break thru 0.81 wld see weaker US$ and equity rise?
jayinasia
· 5 months ago
I'm watching it closely. IMO the AUD and LOONIE are the most indicative of Risk and Growth opinions. If it gets very clear of that top channel this week, it could be lights out until s/p 1050.
Ali
· 5 months ago
Looking at the way the Aussie has been hugging that top channel last few days, I'd say a break out was likely. What laggards are you looking at?
jayinasia
· 5 months ago
Haven't really had a chance to look at it but off the top of my head, Vietnam/Thailand/Malaysia come to my mind. The horses are Shanghai/Indonesia/Hang Seng/Korea.
nummy
· 5 months ago
love that song .. it brings me back to the 80s... for the 6 years I lived in the decade.
the ramones rock
TraderTamas
· 5 months ago
I'm up 1.3% in FAZ currently... let's see what happens tomorrow morning.
toad37
· 5 months ago
TT, do you usually only trade 1 position at a time?
TraderTamas
· 5 months ago
Yeah... either FAS or FAZ
toad37
· 5 months ago
I've been thinking about doing something similar. I'm sure it keeps you more focused.
Bankster
· 5 months ago
I am new to TOS so I have a newbie question. If I want to enter an order to play a breakout, how do I enter this in TOS? For example, go long 1 x ES above 953 (trigger would be a print of 953.25, I want to pay 953) and at the same time enter a stop-loss sell 10 points below that.
If someone can capture a screenshot of the order entry window, that would be great. You can hide your account information by checking the privacy checkbox under Buying Power.
Thank you.
MidasTouch
· 5 months ago
Bankster, I don't think pasting is possible here. However, on the trade tab - order entry, select 1st trgs seq in the box next to advanced order. Then, select buy, change price to 953, select LIMIT under "order". Then, select sell, change price to 943, select STOP under "order". Then, confirm and send. 1st trgs seq is first triggers sequence. It has to hit 953 for the stop to be a working order. If you select blast all, the first price hit will trigger, so you don't want to do that.
It's a pretty cool platform and very versatile too. Since you are new, be careful when using advanced order because it can be easy to enter orders incorrectly. Alternatively, you can call TOS now and ask the futures/forex rep for assistance. I think it is option 7 - 866-839-1100. Good luck.
Gary_L
· 5 months ago
Bankster, right click on the Ask.
In the box that pops up, select Buy Custom and select the option you want.
Once your order is setup at the bottom of the screen, click on the rules box to set your trigger.
I'd flesh this out more, but I gotta go to work.
Insect Overlord
· 5 months ago
/ES formed a beautiful short entry IMHO. Here's what I see and consider a good entry.
Ok bears. You've got some work to do. Breakouts all over the place. China, Hang Seng, Korea. AUD, EUR. I can hear the train pulling out from the station. You've got to try and slow it down a bit (for those that want to get off and others that want to get on, LOL) please?
All Comments
Special Bull Exorcism Ritual Edition :-)
In response to the question – my current trading:
I have the following core holdings
PWE – a Canadian Oil Trust – an oil play, a dividend income play and a play on the Canadian Dollar which is moving once again toward parity. My holding here is more than a year. I day trade PWE regularly to reduce the initial basis of $26
Now down to $6 (as adjusted by gains over losses in day trading)
INTC – Intel – I have Long term Calls (deep in the money) Jan 2011 (VNLAB) 10’s. I day trade INTC regularly to reduce the initial basis of $5 to now below $2
XTXI - Crosstex Energy, Inc. is engaged, through its subsidiaries, in the gathering, transmission, treating, processing and marketing of natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL). My original basis adjusted for additions in holdings was $3.50. It is a “high risk” investment.
I day trade XTXI and have now reduced my basis to $.75
GE – I have substantial long term calls Jan 2011 $7.50 calls with an initial basis of $6.00 and I have day traded that down to about $3.50
Finally, I have a “high risk position” in CLWR – clearwire – a play on Sprint, Intel and a coalition of other major players in WiMax and 4G.
In March, when RIMM was down below $40 – I purchased in the money calls when it was at $38 and rode the price up to $58.
I have a position in Yahoo – I’m nowhere, it’s nowhere – but something has to happen – I don’t use margin….so no cost to hold.
Finally, I have had calls in PALM for the past 2+ years, constantly rolling over near expiration to longer terms. My initial basis was at $9 (a post large distribution to shareholder price) rode it down to $4 and I hope to finally close this position when Verizon announces the “Pre” has been added to their network.
I have 4 accounts - only one is a trading account - the remainder is in cash and cash like securities representing 55% of my liquid net worth.
I am currently in Banks Idaho, Kayaking Whitewater, Living on the Road - with my new shelter dog Jackpot - Whose picture will be my current - I will be day trading PWE and XTXI as they make nice % moves - watching the tick and volume over the past year has allowed me to trade without thinking - sometime reacting (only) to price and volume - along with (macro) Technical Analysis - I never watch more than 2 to 5 securities during a trading period. My best to you all....good trading
http://peachin.blogspot.com/2007/07/technical-a...
I bet he is having the time of his life though... I know I did back in '92 when I did an Outward Bound trip in the High Sierras.
I actually just sent you a follow up email from last week. Thanks in advance for any feedback at any time.
Have a great Sunday!!
I enjoy reading your thoughts so don't want you to get burned out and quit! But also realize you feel more comfortable taking short positions. It's my impression that Brinkley feels more comfortable with long positions. I enjoy reading Brinkley's posts and she is a good balance with your comments, for me. I have no idea if you or she would be interested in sharing your blog, but it might be fun to read two opinions and it might lighten your load. In my work I have to share space with people from different perspectives so this could just be my bias, but thought I'd share my idea in case it's something you might be interested in.
Sorry about all the posts, but had to verify account and somehow posted multiple times. Also Peachin from what I remember it was your posts about your sexual attraction to 15 yo that made some of us uncomfortable, not trading posts.
Whether or not brinkley serves as cohost or continues in her current role, I really appreciate her posts.
Long-Term
I began looking at my monthly charts on Thursday. They still look pretty bad to me with the trend way down, and they still support the conclusion that the markets remain in a secular bear market (e.g., technical perspective). Furthermore, with the economy in the toilet and average people still losing jobs and homes (e.g., fundamentals), we are beginning the first phases of the L-shaped economy (at least that’s my bias). The markets could progress down much further (well below the current $SPX 666.79 low from March 2009).
Mid-Term
John Murphy (a very skilled and well-respected market technician) commented this weekend that cyclical bull markets will retrace (on average) about 50% and can take up to a year. He suggested that the 50% retrace area is about 1000 on the $SPX. Therefore, technically I suspect (and have the bias) that 1015 is going to be a difficult area on the $SPX chart (just a hunch) because it is the first (standard) fib retracement that the $SPX will encounter in this cyclical bull market. I would also note that I have personally emailed John Murphy as to how he arrived at his calculation of 1000 on the $SPX. When he responds to that question, I will share it here.
Short-Term
The spike up this past week still looks like a Max Pain type of event (specifically timed for OpEx). The $SPX at 956 is the next area to watch on the upside (imo). Overall though, I have to wonder if it will become more of a stock pickers market for the rest of the summer (as opposed to “all stocks rising” like in March and April 2009). And traders have some help with that. The current earnings season is already beginning to reveal some of the stronger (like GS) and weaker stocks (like BAC).
Some Charts
http://tinyurl.com/kuh5an (Put Call Ratio … I watch this daily and intra-day)
http://tinyurl.com/lae97c (Commodities break up with the US Dollar decline)
http://tinyurl.com/l54uks (Lots of stocks are now over their 200 dma’s ... this is bullish)
http://tinyurl.com/ns9obq (Volatility has been beaten severely back down)
http://tinyurl.com/mrhybb (A newer personal indicator)
http://tinyurl.com/n472un (NASDAQ continues to lead the way technically)
I am getting back into posting my own technical analysis after laying low for a while (I also posted a long analysis last Sunday) ... I did try to re-calculate that 1,000 figure using various start and end points for the 50% retrace ... I did not get a match so that's why I emailed Murphy.
I am sure that the stockcharts people will get back to me with an answer to my question ... or John Murphy may post a response to my question in one of his messages to subscribers (that is what he did last time I posed a question) ...
http://screencast.com/t/RhNUk6jAvr
And here's the fib retracement from the 2007 high, placing Murphy's 1,000 law @ the 38.2% fib (kind of neat) and the 61.8% fib @ the 1,229 I've mentioned, which is also the projected resolution of the inverse h/s should it confirm.
http://screencast.com/t/eaCkPIDn
Fascinating, but perhaps too neat and tidy.
I am not hard and fast on the target number (e.g., anywhere from 999 to 1015) ... but I will watch the tape and its price action more closely when and if the markets get to that range ...
With so many H&S patterns failing recently ... I have to wonder how successful the inverse H&S might be ...
I'm curious about the topmost trendline on the $NYA200R chart. Did you put that there thinking it was the top?
The key to the pattern is if the right side mirrors the left side. So ask yourself, does the left side look like the right side if we flipped it over?
In looking at the charts, I can see there is a major resistance level at 950 which has been pointed out on this blog previously as well as many others. I can also see the most recent downturn may have been a bull flag and its obvious to me that there was a downward trending channel on the spy. The top of this channel was taken out last week.
If the index gets past 950, then there is a good chance it will get back to the point before the financial crisis really began which is between 1200-1400. One of the reasons the SPX crashed, in my opinion, was because of an uptrending TED spread which measures lenders willingness to lend money. Many companies essentially run on credit and now they have that credit tap again, can keep running. Witness LVLT which has made no money over the last several years and is fueled by credit.
The TED spread is no longer in an uptrend and has reached 2007 levels. Junk companies like CAR and LVLT can now get money to their heart's desire.
Your portfolio is essentially puts and double/triple short etfs. I dont see any long positions. If the index goes above 950 and keeps going, then I am guessing you are going to have large losses.
While I see a case for the S&P running to 1200-1400, I also see a case where the index could pivot right now and move to new lower lows. "Black Swan" events typically happen between August and November such as 9/11. Im not hoping for one to happen, but these months seem especially vulnerable when looking back through history.
My question to you is how are you handling this risk and what are your exact feelings? What are you going to do if the SPX goes over 950?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=...
Mark Hansen aka Mr. Mortgage has a new blog post and some new numbers. April to May notice of default was up 5% to a new high. This represents an 83% year over year change. Bank owned inventory increased 6.2%.
You can find the rest here:
http://www.fieldcheckgroup.com/blog/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Dennis
http://screencast.com/t/L2RpVXU1P
ICLR
SNDK
FFIV
MMM
AXP
AMZN
SLE
PCP
PX
AMT
AOC
KFT
BCS
DIS
GE
AA
WU
KO
QLGC
WHR
SWK
VFC
FDX
thanks for the list. Should be and interesting week. So you had an old fashioned crabfest this weekend?
Gregory G McGary
Sent via iPhone 3Gs
Gregory G McGary
Sent via iPhone 3Gs
it again.
Gregory G McGary
Sent via iPhone 3Gs
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/19/spx-500-...
Second if I published that kind of lengthy research on your blog it would occupy massive amounts of space.
Third do you feel that you have been put in charge of the financial bloggisphere world? In that case, you might want to go to Moo and Atilla's site and police there too. Don't worry, you will get a nice shiny badge. LOLOL
Edit - A-Ha. After further thought I see that you/we have your/our own tool/tools.
Good trading to you. And thanks for expanding my mind.
She will come back to you TK.......
Tim,
Dax - Medium term
http://followmarketrend.blogspot.com/2009/07/da...
Between the range. Nothing new medium term.
Big trades for you and for all
Enjoy
There was a double bottom in arithmetic indices. One of the standout was the VLE the Value Line Arithmetic Index.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VLE&p=D&yr=1&... which had a well defined double bottom (Nov/March)
http://screencast.com/t/kG82NUtZX
http://tinyurl.com/l62rdk
Thanks...
BTW: Atilla's screen name was A-ha on the traders-talk message board.
If we get a pullback below the 3% level, or the neckline, will the pattern still be valid?
Also, CSX has confirmed. Same question regarding a pullback.
Thank you.
if the market stays bullish ... it looks like a good pull back buy (a bit extended here though) ... it has relative strength to the $SPX
saw 5 hrs of vhi's top 100 songs of the 80s yesterday and never knew the video for take on me had to do with a cartoon/human interaction until yesterday
and then u post a parody of it
now ill always think of these words when listening to this song: "pipe wrench fight......"
OK--All you "Leechier than thou" peeps, here it is, without further ado.
List of tickers that TK gave me permission to re-use in a beefed up format. Tim posted these today as trade ideas. Not only do you get the list with more information, you can download it in Excel format and also in Txt format. The txt file can be imported directed into a Prophet charts watchlist.
The files are available on link below.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/07/boatloa...
How about a Sunday afternoon chart-a-rama, of what you see as good opportunities for the up coming week?
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/07/boatloa...
These mesh with the downloadable Excel and txt watchlist files I posted earlier.
I may try SPXU (the triple short)....... maybe
By the way, an exact pictual of your roadmap that you describe last week is the period around Jan 5 on the S&P. WOW
Gregory G McGary
Sent via iPhone 3Gs
Sort of like rolling a losing long option to the next month.
Wonder what this will do to the futures.
At least there's some symmetry there. The market didn't seem to care when CIT was pricing for BK mid-week.
Kind of odd to this country boy. I couldn't help thinking this was a much bigger deal than the market did (in both directions).
expecting that the symmetry you point out would have been washed away
with all the newfound optimism out there.
Tomorrow and Tuesday: if the market advances will lead me to believe
that for the short term, last weeks strength was not an aberration. I
am expecting more sell pressure tomorrow as index arbs reposition from
the buying in they did last week. Volume has truly been pathetic for
both longs and shorts. We shall see.
Computer problems.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/149598-perhaps-...
The author writes a weekly roundup which might be a good concise read.
a look at the last week bear slaughter, H&S fake out and how breadth was showing signs the market was turning http://tinyurl.com/mb5b26
Another problem was that in the anticipation of the coming break of the H&S, half the world and their uncles were short. You are supposed to go short after a break of the neckline, but a large number did not wait. Then they were forced to cover when earnings came out better.
The break of major support requires some long side capitulation. Shorts by themselves can not take most market down; they need help from smart longs. When even CNBC is talking about the bearish pattern, then the chance of it to succeed are low; absence some catalyst for long side selling.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/07/boatloa...
These mesh with the downloadable Excel and txt watchlist files I posted earlier.
Does anyone know a company that start trading before.
thanks
The stock exchanges are open from 9:30 AM EST till 4:00 PM EST.
The Futures such as /ES trade from 6:00 PM EST Sunday thru till 4:15 PM EST Friday, with a couple of breaks each day, one at 4:15 PM EST, and one at 11:00 PM EST.
So possibly you could see about futures or overseas markets.
Best Regards
Corporate heavyweights reporting this week should sharpen investors' view of the economy. Reports on the April-June quarter are expected from American Express Co., aerospace manufacturer Boeing Co., industrial equipment maker Caterpillar Inc. and drug maker Merck & Co. Key consumer companies Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Coca-Cola Co., eBay Inc., PepsiCo Inc. and Starbucks Corp. are also due to report.
The article
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/article...
I spent 6 months figuring out which actual symbols I would look at every day. Stocks with high enough volume, decent stocks, stocks that move in a sine wave not all jumpy and unpredictable (I dislike using that word, but don't know a better word).
Think about where the money is going. Into this and out of that. Follow the money. The stocks you want to follow may "rotate from one market segment to another. That is what Investools is good for. (Other people may know a better way to follow the money path (segment rotation) for less cost.)
Start smaller and build on your success.
Just my 2 cents. Would like to hear from others on this same subject myself.
Happy trading T.
Disclaimer - My hat is off to Tim Knight for being able to follow and maintain a multitude of stocks.
Very good idea to learn focus - AND I have a new, max 3 positions rule. Everything else is just noise. A good way to keep it real, from a n00b here as well, is to learn to enter a position where you can manage your risk from. Make it a personalized trade, not just the market's.
...this is clearly someone elses market. I am but a leech.
Thanks for sharing, good stuff!
Less Is More!
Some lines I made on POT as things developed:
http://www.screencast.com/users/MovinFwd/folder...
Now ask yourself, would you have taken those trades.
And what lines should be drawn out into the future. That is why the chart has extend (to the right) on it. We are always working on the "hard right edge" of the chart but looking into the now and future for low risk high probabilty trades points.
Sorry barebull. This turned into more than just a small agreement to you that I had planned. But I just left it here attached to you.
AGCO
TSCO
are all good shorts
http://www.tradinggoddess.com/search/label/zstock7
Bad habits are learned there.
Little ending diagn. for crude for a healthy pullback tomorrow?
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/20090719tos_c...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
Some big news out of China with a State Agency even admitting that a property development that goes up in price over 6% in a week is a little TOO MUCH. LOL.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$KOSPI&p=D&yr=...
It is a little early for the real move to start now....we should see the real move sometime tonight 11pm Pacific time.....
Someone threw up a chart of EWH earlier, suggesting a short. I'd be careful taking that trade right now.
One draw back is the AUD. It's just now trying to break out of it's channel.
the ramones rock
If someone can capture a screenshot of the order entry window, that would be great. You can hide your account information by checking the privacy checkbox under Buying Power.
Thank you.
It's a pretty cool platform and very versatile too. Since you are new, be careful when using advanced order because it can be easy to enter orders incorrectly. Alternatively, you can call TOS now and ask the futures/forex rep for assistance. I think it is option 7 - 866-839-1100. Good luck.
In the box that pops up, select Buy Custom and select the option you want.
Once your order is setup at the bottom of the screen, click on the rules box to set your trigger.
I'd flesh this out more, but I gotta go to work.
http://screencast.com/t/h7K6Nk9mvGL
Kospi finished right at the 50 fib from '07 high.