I prefer exotic clothing removal engineer, thank you.
thedocument
· 2 years ago
I prefer one of those, too. Maybe we can share....
Barney
· 2 years ago
Scwiiiiiiiiing!
hightempo
· 2 years ago
Facts that hard to ignore. The European Central Bank offers $500 BILLION of loans to Commerical Banks (MORE iF NEEDED). MER gets $5 Billion; C gets $7.5 Billion, MS gets $5 billion, UBS gets $11.2 billion from sovereign wealth funds (MUCH MORE IS AVAILABLE IF NEEDED).
Until the free "candy store" closes, the equity and currency markets will be stable or increasing. Interrest rates on Treasury Notes will drop to much lower levels as the smart money seeks somesort of safe haven.
The serious problems will occur next year when it becomes apparent that these new cash infusions have become worthless and the losses will be estimated in the TRILLIONS not billions of dollars.
Until then enjoy the Christmas Rally.
Sebastian19
· 2 years ago
I see it this way too. The bears lost their #1 friend this week, the steady drip-drip-drip of bad news from the financial giants. In a 1984ish turn-around, the bad news is suddenly considered to be good news. It's hard to imagine the market staying down (short term).
thatguydrinksbeer
· 2 years ago
And despite all that, they can't keep up. I'm not dissagreeing with you, just thought you'd find this interesting. Also see The Big Picture today, good article on money supply.
thanks for the link, very good info in there! Liquidity is the opposite of volatility so it makes sense that as banks have been pressured--due to a sieze up in liquidity--that banks suffer and volatility climbs. The 'tell' in my mind is if the banking sector can truly regain its footing with the FED 'help' and claw out a bottom here. If banks truly start an uptrend then the VIX will continue its downtrend. I still stick to my thesis from earlier that we will see a BKX spurt of bargain buying but it will be very short lived. Too much structural damage to the banking sector that wont go away in a month. A bet on banking = a bet against the VIX. AS banking goes so goes the market.
fayssoux
· 2 years ago
Tim has said viewership of this site is a contrary indicator. Subdued tone, fewer posts, it's a great day to be buying puts. Sell them when the bears are exuberant
Winace
· 2 years ago
Ha! You can give points with this comments system. Had to give one to Avalon for the avatar, got my guns smokin.
Avalon
· 2 years ago
right back at 'cha
Winace
· 2 years ago
and then there's beanie. Didn't know the points system could go negative!
Winace
· 2 years ago
Avalon. just noticed your avatar, you should not mention "bounce" in your posts, it is hard to focus on the content of the discussion!
katelew
· 2 years ago
The VIX is looking sooooooo good!!!!! This 18-ish number has been corresponding nicely with market corrections.
Kate (I had to start over with a new user name, password, etc. to create a profile for my avatar. The old ones were preventing me from loggin in......weird.)
BobK
· 2 years ago
A "forward fit" of Fib lines suggests this rally will go to *about* $SPX 1511, perhaps after a detour to 1464. 1511 is also in the vicinity of the trendline from the last two highs.
Winace
· 2 years ago
Interesting, I thought I was the only one that forward fit fib lines. Has it worked pretty well for you?
BobK
· 2 years ago
I'm new to it, so far it's very useful. My caveats: there's less precision when you extrapolate, and there's usually more than one way to make a fit. I just did another fit that suggest 1502-ish as a target. So I'll probably keep revising as the move develops.
I'm currently using it in combination with a trend channel and a Wave count. That got me within a point of finding this week's lows.
4sight2020
· 2 years ago
One thing I have not been "stopped out of" is overestimating how long the masters of the universe manage to postpone the inevitable. (The bear market, which may have started already) Underestimating causes me to get stopped out way too often. If I overestimate, I seem to do better. That should work until the Black Swan comes around.
So maybe the program traders have it all planned out: That VIX formation can break out of the small triangle, bounce off the lower trend line, go up and bounce off the extension of the earlier highs, forming a bigger triangle. Like building a Russian doll with more and more smaller ones hidden inside.
That is sort of what Elliott is saying with his 3 wave and 5 wave fractal theory.
Maybe the script will continue until something happens to knock it off its track. I can't shake the feeling that many traders are losing their enthusiasm lately. Maybe they just want to go home and enjoy the holiday, and to heck with the markets, the markets can wait.
2SWTrading
· 2 years ago
I am sorry, I want to point out something: program traders are not planning anything, it is not a conspiracy theory, or a secret masonic sect.
they are just using STATISTICS to calculate the most probable scenarios for the market trends short term and medium term (an also daily and intraday)
then they trade according to the statistical odds they've found
now this is a bit of a simplification, things never go so smooth and linear in life, but these people follow a sort of roadmap made out of statistics
in the end of the day Tim Knight does the same: for example he believe that statistically the Fib lines act as entry/exit points for the IWM, or that H&S patterns are very reliable shorting point.
The difference is that program traders use computers to calculate events of the past that are mainly related to dates, financial reports like CPI, unemployment, etc.
Tim Knight uses his eyes to make decisions based on charts, UBS, GSCO and others they use a piece of paper with numbers on, but it is the same approach.
Everybody, as a trader, is just trying to frame the chaotic and unpredictable market phenomenon, into something predictable and rational.
I hope I made myself more clear.
thedocument
· 2 years ago
I understand your point and I know all about using statistics to trade the market, but I assure you program traders are not the only ones in the universe analyzing those stats, and they are not necessarily the smartest, either. If they see something that can call the market out to June with a reasonable amount of certainty, then you can believe that many others have seen it as well, and then the "trade" is already built in... discounted, as it were. It is much easier for stat heads to gain an advantage in short-term trading, simply because they can process new information much faster than the public. So if your friends were to say that the next few hours or days are likely to be very bullish, then I would pay more attention.
2SWTrading
· 2 years ago
I bow to your chart wisdom, Tim King, this is a good point...
Auggie
· 2 years ago
Looking good, 2sweeties. Let's see if your friend's trends continue.....
ZodiacZ
· 2 years ago
Hey 2Sweets, Thanks for the timely heads up to the 21st.... You were right on the money with that call, much appreciated. Merry Christmas !
2SWTrading
· 2 years ago
Hey, Merry Xmas to you as well, I'm happy you've been profitable on this widely announced trade.
But keep the guard up, and always make your own final decisions, as you said in another post.
Sometimes my calls are wrong. I am just trying to keep them 80% right - LOL
Auggie
· 2 years ago
Too early to short, even though this up leg is not sustainable. It will be interesting to see if we fade or need to take a longer view as to where that best entry point is. Keep yer powder dry... All it takes is one leg to knock this table over..... http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/20/news/companies/...
locster
· 2 years ago
cheers for the link. Bad debt is like a hot potato right now, getting passed around pillar to post. Eventually someone somewhere has to take a hit. It's like a giant game of musical chairs
BobK
· 2 years ago
FWIW, $VIX hasn't been below its 200 MA since May; it looks like it's right there now.
downosedive!!
· 2 years ago
OK, so what does this mean - up or down from now on?
BobK
· 2 years ago
For now, it's mostly a reminder that puts are relatively cheap.
pgb
· 2 years ago
VIX never popped on the last move down. Ignore it for now.
Anybody else notice? A Triple witch? Volume on etf's i follow? Anemic.
Q's - 1/2 normal volume. Virtual volume from prophetnet. Tim will like that plug. Only IWM has any volume and that is 10 % under normal. The retail etf - RTH? 50 less than normal?
Great rally...eh? Where is the juice?
p
Avalon
· 2 years ago
Bounce off support with low volume: Isn't this what they call a "fake-out" rather than a break out?
locster
· 2 years ago
Avalon, that avater is a teeny bit distrating :) Did someone say something about trading?
Buster
· 2 years ago
Hi Tim- what's really interesting about today is the financial sector is bouncing, but in a very feeble way. Energy is bouncing, but again not very impressively. Big cap tech is once again leading the charge...God bless the Working Group; your tax dollars at work! Why fix bridges when you can prop up your brokerage buddies...yeh!
It's about what we thought last night: leaders leading, bankers bouncing, Gold glittering, and a partridge in a pear tree. Too bad it's still a house of cards.
Buster
· 2 years ago
ok, ok energy is bouncing impressively now...now kicking myself for not buying more energy stocks
AlekC
· 2 years ago
Great comparison charts. In a sense the volatiliy has dropped as the S&P went down meaning possible no institutions around to short the market, not even to hedge or maybe they're all put out. Breaking that VIX trendline is a key point to watch.
drake
· 2 years ago
Although I think the markets might drift higher, I have still shorted today, for the remainder of the day. Specifically, the IWM.
Winace
· 2 years ago
Short term H&S patterns just broke on many stochastic oscilators, expecting a leg down, now or shortly anyway.
drake
· 2 years ago
Also long the JPY futures (yen), which lately moves inversely to US stock indices.
locster
· 2 years ago
Check out a longer term VIX graph and you can see a very plain sine wave going back to 1990. This year seems to be breaking that pattern though - we seem to be higher much earlier than the sinewave would suggest. Arguably the sine wave is red herring, the dip since 2003 is due to low interest rates resulting in loads of money being shovelled onto the markets. That money is now drying up rather quickly.
Liek I say we may see 800+ but I would say 780 is a good entry point for a short if you are prepared to cover that eventuality and wait for the inevitable (IMHO) fall. I'm already covering shorts so will wait until 790+ to take on more shorts.
Hmm I also see RIM published better than expected profits for the THIRD quarter - mostly before the 'liquidity crisis'.
Dow13_500
· 2 years ago
DOW 13,500 is a sweet shorting spot. Looking to place a big bet around that number.
2SWTrading
· 2 years ago
let me refine the forecast made by program traders: up into january 2008, but with a chance to touch a new low after 1 jan 2008 (allow a 4 days shift on every date I mention)
then rally up into 8 jun 2008 (again 4 days shift possible)
thedocument
· 2 years ago
Seriously, 2sweet. There is no way the market were that well orchestrated or predictable, no matter where the info is coming from.
doc
2SWTrading
· 2 years ago
the point is that if 60% of the market (aka program traders) believe that is the trend they are going to act (trade) in that direction
the rest of the market will follow
program traders are the trading desks of GSCO, UBS, CS - this people ARE the market makers
Merrill Lynch is not program traders and they are just following (in late) what the leaders do
somehow it is a self-fulfilling prophecy
I don't pretend to be a prophet or say that the above info is damn right, I am just saying: watch out, there is a 60% of the market (big boys, not retail crap like us) that do bow to the program trading rules and forecasts and I am giving you the forecasts
then if tomorrow an atomic bomb drops on Wall Street maybe things can go another way, but besides the extraordinary events (curveballs), pretty much what is going to happen is market up into june 2008
ZodiacZ
· 2 years ago
So far every time 2 Sweet has shared some market timing info it has been very good indeed. Keep us informrmed and let the readers decide what to do about it. I for one just used it to buy qqqq calls Wed afternoon that are up 90% so far. THANK YOU 2 SWEETS !!!
thatguydrinksbeer
· 2 years ago
That's funny.
Gumbo YaYa
· 2 years ago
SPY can't seem to get its head above the $147.60 resistance area. IWM gapped up, but is just sitting there.
Barney
· 2 years ago
What is the T.A. for stocks making new (multi-year) lows like SHLD ANN ZLC BBBY WSM? No Santa rally for these guys.
polarbear
· 2 years ago
Here is a good article provides two studies (40-week cycles 20 bull 20bear and Large Caps Small Caps seasonality), with probability favoring a bullish bias for small caps from mid-Dec to Jan/Feb:
Looking like flags on the ETF's. A break up to match yesterdays pop and this mornings gap looks to be likely.
thedocument
· 2 years ago
I wonder if next week turns out to be a mirror image of Thanksgiving week. During Turkey Day, we saw a sharp sell-off, a day off, then a run up on a low-volume half day. Perhaps next week we see a run up on a low-volume half day followed by a day off and then selling into the year end.
Not a prediction... just a thought.
BobK
· 2 years ago
I see an upward impulse that started Tuesday, we just completed Wave 3, and we're consolidation in Wave 4. One more upward wave. Does that fit your thesis?
My initial projection of 1511 may have been a bit of a stretch, I'll take another look tonight.
Sebastian19
· 2 years ago
I've been thinking the same thing. Maybe the Christmas Eve traders will run the Dow up to 13,500 and drive the vix below 18. Not a prediction of course, but... it could make for an interesting Wednesday morning (not sure about after that)
thedocument
· 2 years ago
Bob, this morning we broke out of a 4-day basing pattern that projects to 1500. I suspect we'll see a light-volume ramp to that level on Monday.
BobK
· 2 years ago
doc - That sounds reasonable, but I think we'll see a day or more of consolidation first (assuming we've now finished Wave 3... I was premature earlier). Today's highs ran right along the top of a channel that's developing.
I did another Fib fit, and it comes out closer to your target, at 1501.99, but the channel doesn't get up there until mid-week.
WilliamGCash
· 2 years ago
IWM looks ugly today - just fairly sideways all day....
Anyway, I just sold a few options, with conditional stops - since I probably won't be in the market much in the next week or so, I'm just hoping to collect some money off of time decay, since we got a half day Monday and no trading on Tuesday - that's a lot of time to let time decay add up.
Auggie
· 2 years ago
What do all these flags mean? ... Flag on the Nasdaq 100, Dow, S&P 500, HUI (P-metals mining stocks), XOI (Oil), & the RUT.
NostraD
· 2 years ago
Recent lurker. New blogger.
IWM may form a Doji Star today. Although considered by many to signify a Bearish Reversal, Bulkowski maintains that statistically 69% of the time it is a Bullish Continuation. However, if on Monday there is an opening gap lower with a negative engulfing bar of yesterday's price range, a Bearish Abandoned Baby formation will foretell lower prices...with again Bulkowski's 69% of the time.
With the recent .VIX activity an immediate bullish case seems overwhelming. However, there is a significant .VIX contago occurring which would say that there is downside foretold for January and beyond.
Thanks Tim and others for your efforts. Please have a safe and Merry Christmas.
Benjamin
· 2 years ago
Hmm... I'm noticing a divergence in the $VIX and $SPX, isn't it obvious that this is the time when $VIX is going to break the trendline? The path of least resistance is up at the moment.
Winace
· 2 years ago
Lost my a$$ off this mornings sesion, then came back and finished in the green. Not a good day, but beats a loss day! I closed everything out. Have a great weekend, see you the next trading day!
Mike
· 2 years ago
Tim, it looks like IWM was an early tell for this rally a few days ago when it outperformed the other indices.
Winace
· 2 years ago
I play either way, take what the market gives me. I just read it as it plays out, kind of like a story. It is better to make money on bearish plays though. As price action drops the volatility increases. You make profit two fold, intrinsic and extrinsic (volatility (theta stills sucks!) unless your net seller of course)
BobK
· 2 years ago
USO had a bit of a breakout today, as did the services sector. I'm thinking oil will be pushed to a symbolic $100 before year-end.
TraderGirl
· 2 years ago
Testing to see if it works. Happy Holidays Gang!
2SWTrading
· 2 years ago
Well, the number of posts has been so high lately and the market has in fact bottomed and turned up.
I think the next down leg will be when this blog will be almost deserted....
A Merry Christmas to everybody, see you after the holidays.
fortune8
· 2 years ago
Quick question.
Are you folks secular or cyclical bears or may be permabear?
mixleplex
· 2 years ago
Santa Claus is comin to town. We will rally into year end, then the bears come back first week of january.
The bulls got their christmas gift. Don't fight it.
Me
· 2 years ago
Tim and The Gang,
I am a "Play it Up or play it Down" kinda of trader but wanted to say that it is always so comical to me when I see a Up day albeit a Short Lived and Rather Late in Coming Santa Rally that Tim does not post his usual and boastful gains on Puts and the peanut gallery becomes rather quiet...... Just an observation and NOT a intended to be negative. Would it not be great to have Tim's Put trades on days like today when the markets and IWM are pushing higher? That would be a good sign of a Bear - find the nuggets on days like these! Merry Christmas All and to All a Good Afternoon!
Jana
· 2 years ago
"Tim does not post his usual and boastful gains on Puts"
Uh, well on a day like this, puts are mostly NOT doing well.
"Would it not be great to have Tim's Put trades on days like today when the markets and IWM are pushing higher? That would be a good sign of a Bear "
The sign of a good Bear would be to get out on days like this and wait in the wings until another opportunity. Which, I presume, is exactly what his is doing.
As my five year old would tell you, "So, duh."
peachin
· 2 years ago
The sign of a good trader - is to go either way - by the way the charts work both ways and the tape reinforces the direction. I believe Jana, that once in awhile Tim trades long (calls) he talks them and I'm sure he does them. Tim is hosting a site for Bears so he talks "Bear" to them. ME posted above you goes either way he is a "Bi Trader" Me too.
Buster
· 2 years ago
Jana why did you change your picture? The second is beautiful, but I liked the first as well. I have a 5 month old, so I maybe I'm just sentimental...
All Comments
Until the free "candy store" closes, the equity and currency markets will be stable or increasing. Interrest rates on Treasury Notes will drop to much lower levels as the smart money seeks somesort of safe haven.
The serious problems will occur next year when it becomes apparent that these new cash infusions have become worthless and the losses will be estimated in the TRILLIONS not billions of dollars.
Until then enjoy the Christmas Rally.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/fredgraph?...
http://www.stocktiming.com/Thursday-DailyMarket...
This was from last night.
Kate
(I had to start over with a new user name, password, etc. to create a profile for my avatar. The old ones were preventing me from loggin in......weird.)
I'm currently using it in combination with a trend channel and a Wave count. That got me within a point of finding this week's lows.
So maybe the program traders have it all planned out: That VIX formation can break out of the small triangle, bounce off the lower trend line, go up and bounce off the extension of the earlier highs, forming a bigger triangle. Like building a Russian doll with more and more smaller ones hidden inside.
That is sort of what Elliott is saying with his 3 wave and 5 wave fractal theory.
Maybe the script will continue until something happens to knock it off its track. I can't shake the feeling that many traders are losing their enthusiasm lately. Maybe they just want to go home and enjoy the holiday, and to heck with the markets, the markets can wait.
they are just using STATISTICS to calculate the most probable scenarios for the market trends short term and medium term (an also daily and intraday)
then they trade according to the statistical odds they've found
now this is a bit of a simplification, things never go so smooth and linear in life, but these people follow a sort of roadmap made out of statistics
in the end of the day Tim Knight does the same: for example he believe that statistically the Fib lines act as entry/exit points for the IWM, or that H&S patterns are very reliable shorting point.
The difference is that program traders use computers to calculate events of the past that are mainly related to dates, financial reports like CPI, unemployment, etc.
Tim Knight uses his eyes to make decisions based on charts, UBS, GSCO and others they use a piece of paper with numbers on, but it is the same approach.
Everybody, as a trader, is just trying to frame the chaotic and unpredictable market phenomenon, into something predictable and rational.
I hope I made myself more clear.
But keep the guard up, and always make your own final decisions, as you said in another post.
Sometimes my calls are wrong. I am just trying to keep them 80% right - LOL
All it takes is one leg to knock this table over..... http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/20/news/companies/...
Anybody else notice? A Triple witch?
Volume on etf's i follow? Anemic.
Q's - 1/2 normal volume. Virtual volume from prophetnet. Tim will like that plug.
Only IWM has any volume and that is 10 % under normal.
The retail etf - RTH? 50 less than normal?
Great rally...eh? Where is the juice?
p
It's about what we thought last night: leaders leading, bankers bouncing, Gold glittering, and a partridge in a pear tree. Too bad it's still a house of cards.
Liek I say we may see 800+ but I would say 780 is a good entry point for a short if you are prepared to cover that eventuality and wait for the inevitable (IMHO) fall. I'm already covering shorts so will wait until 790+ to take on more shorts.
Hmm I also see RIM published better than expected profits for the THIRD quarter - mostly before the 'liquidity crisis'.
then rally up into 8 jun 2008 (again 4 days shift possible)
doc
the rest of the market will follow
program traders are the trading desks of GSCO, UBS, CS - this people ARE the market makers
Merrill Lynch is not program traders and they are just following (in late) what the leaders do
somehow it is a self-fulfilling prophecy
I don't pretend to be a prophet or say that the above info is damn right, I am just saying: watch out, there is a 60% of the market (big boys, not retail crap like us) that do bow to the program trading rules and forecasts and I am giving you the forecasts
then if tomorrow an atomic bomb drops on Wall Street maybe things can go another way, but besides the extraordinary events (curveballs), pretty much what is going to happen is market up into june 2008
Santa rally for these guys.
http://www.optionetics.com/market/articles/arti...
Not a prediction... just a thought.
My initial projection of 1511 may have been a bit of a stretch, I'll take another look tonight.
I did another Fib fit, and it comes out closer to your target, at 1501.99, but the channel doesn't get up there until mid-week.
Anyway, I just sold a few options, with conditional stops - since I probably won't be in the market much in the next week or so, I'm just hoping to collect some money off of time decay, since we got a half day Monday and no trading on Tuesday - that's a lot of time to let time decay add up.
IWM may form a Doji Star today. Although considered by many to signify a Bearish Reversal, Bulkowski maintains that statistically 69% of the time it is a Bullish Continuation. However, if on Monday there is an opening gap lower with a negative engulfing bar of yesterday's price range, a Bearish Abandoned Baby formation will foretell lower prices...with again Bulkowski's 69% of the time.
With the recent .VIX activity an immediate bullish case seems overwhelming. However, there is a significant .VIX contago occurring which would say that there is downside foretold for January and beyond.
Thanks Tim and others for your efforts. Please have a safe and Merry Christmas.
I think the next down leg will be when this blog will be almost deserted....
A Merry Christmas to everybody, see you after the holidays.
Are you folks secular or cyclical bears or may be permabear?
The bulls got their christmas gift. Don't fight it.
I am a "Play it Up or play it Down" kinda of trader but wanted to say that it is always so comical to me when I see a Up day albeit a Short Lived and Rather Late in Coming Santa Rally that Tim does not post his usual and boastful gains on Puts and the peanut gallery becomes rather quiet...... Just an observation and NOT a intended to be negative. Would it not be great to have Tim's Put trades on days like today when the markets and IWM are pushing higher? That would be a good sign of a Bear - find the nuggets on days like these! Merry Christmas All and to All a Good Afternoon!
Uh, well on a day like this, puts are mostly NOT doing well.
"Would it not be great to have Tim's Put trades on days like today when the markets and IWM are pushing higher? That would be a good sign of a Bear "
The sign of a good Bear would be to get out on days like this and wait in the wings until another opportunity. Which, I presume, is exactly what his is doing.
As my five year old would tell you, "So, duh."
the direction. I believe Jana, that once in awhile Tim trades long (calls) he talks them and I'm sure he does them. Tim is hosting a site for Bears so he talks "Bear" to them. ME posted above you goes either way
he is a "Bi Trader" Me too.
booyah!
Beanie