Slope of Hope with Tim Knight - Latest Comments in Does the VIX Trend?

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

John Mobius — Sat, 22 Dec 2007 03:35:09 -0000

Well, the number of posts has been so high lately and the market has in fact bottomed and turned up.

I think the next down leg will be when this blog will be almost deserted....

A Merry Christmas to everybody, see you after the holidays.

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

John Mobius — Sat, 22 Dec 2007 03:32:17 -0000

Hey, Merry Xmas to you as well, I'm happy you've been profitable on this widely announced trade.

But keep the guard up, and always make your own final decisions, as you said in another post.

Sometimes my calls are wrong. I am just trying to keep them 80% right - LOL

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

Rebecca Avalon — Sat, 22 Dec 2007 01:35:03 -0000

right back at 'cha

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

Buster — Sat, 22 Dec 2007 00:36:14 -0000

Jana why did you change your picture? The second is beautiful, but I liked the first as well. I have a 5 month old, so I maybe I'm just sentimental...

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

ZodiacZ — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 21:24:43 -0000

So far every time 2 Sweet has shared some market timing info it has been very good indeed. Keep us informrmed and let the readers decide what to do about it. I for one just used it to buy qqqq calls Wed afternoon that are up 90% so far. THANK YOU 2 SWEETS !!!

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

ZodiacZ — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 21:12:48 -0000

Hey 2Sweets, Thanks for the timely heads up to the 21st.... You were right on the money with that call, much appreciated. Merry Christmas !

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

TraderGirl — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 21:01:44 -0000

Testing to see if it works. Happy Holidays Gang!

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

peachin — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 18:04:11 -0000

The sign of a good trader - is to go either way - by the way the charts work both ways and the tape reinforces
the direction. I believe Jana, that once in awhile Tim trades long (calls) he talks them and I'm sure he does them. Tim is hosting a site for Bears so he talks "Bear" to them. ME posted above you goes either way
he is a "Bi Trader" Me too.

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

BobK — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 16:36:45 -0000

doc - That sounds reasonable, but I think we'll see a day or more of consolidation first (assuming we've now finished Wave 3... I was premature earlier). Today's highs ran right along the top of a channel that's developing.

I did another Fib fit, and it comes out closer to your target, at 1501.99, but the channel doesn't get up there until mid-week.

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

BobK — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 16:27:57 -0000

I'm new to it, so far it's very useful. My caveats: there's less precision when you extrapolate, and there's usually more than one way to make a fit. I just did another fit that suggest 1502-ish as a target. So I'll probably keep revising as the move develops.

I'm currently using it in combination with a trend channel and a Wave count. That got me within a point of finding this week's lows.

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

BobK — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 16:12:28 -0000

USO had a bit of a breakout today, as did the services sector. I'm thinking oil will be pushed to a symbolic $100 before year-end.

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

Jana — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 16:04:39 -0000

"Tim does not post his usual and boastful gains on Puts"

Uh, well on a day like this, puts are mostly NOT doing well.

"Would it not be great to have Tim's Put trades on days like today when the markets and IWM are pushing higher? That would be a good sign of a Bear "

The sign of a good Bear would be to get out on days like this and wait in the wings until another opportunity. Which, I presume, is exactly what his is doing.

As my five year old would tell you, "So, duh."

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

Winace — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 15:44:48 -0000

and then there's beanie. Didn't know the points system could go negative!

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

Winace — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 15:42:23 -0000

Ha! You can give points with this comments system. Had to give one to Avalon for the avatar, got my guns smokin.

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

Winace — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 15:38:49 -0000

I play either way, take what the market gives me. I just read it as it plays out, kind of like a story. It is better to make money on bearish plays though. As price action drops the volatility increases. You make profit two fold, intrinsic and extrinsic (volatility (theta stills sucks!) unless your net seller of course)

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

Mike — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 15:35:12 -0000

Tim, it looks like IWM was an early tell for this rally a few days ago when it outperformed the other indices.

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

fayssoux — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 15:32:45 -0000

Tim has said viewership of this site is a contrary indicator. Subdued tone, fewer posts, it's a great day to be buying puts. Sell them when the bears are exuberant

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

Me — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 15:24:00 -0000

Tim and The Gang,

I am a "Play it Up or play it Down" kinda of trader but wanted to say that it is always so comical to me when I see a Up day albeit a Short Lived and Rather Late in Coming Santa Rally that Tim does not post his usual and boastful gains on Puts and the peanut gallery becomes rather quiet...... Just an observation and NOT a intended to be negative. Would it not be great to have Tim's Put trades on days like today when the markets and IWM are pushing higher? That would be a good sign of a Bear - find the nuggets on days like these! Merry Christmas All and to All a Good Afternoon!

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

thedocument — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 15:22:36 -0000

Bob, this morning we broke out of a 4-day basing pattern that projects to 1500. I suspect we'll see a light-volume ramp to that level on Monday.

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

Winace — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 15:11:37 -0000

Interesting, I thought I was the only one that forward fit fib lines. Has it worked pretty well for you?

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

Winace — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 15:06:54 -0000

Avalon. just noticed your avatar, you should not mention "bounce" in your posts, it is hard to focus on the content of the discussion!

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

Winace — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 15:05:04 -0000

Lost my a$$ off this mornings sesion, then came back and finished in the green. Not a good day, but beats a loss day! I closed everything out. Have a great weekend, see you the next trading day!

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

Benjamin — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 14:53:10 -0000

Hmm... I'm noticing a divergence in the $VIX and $SPX, isn't it obvious that this is the time when $VIX is going to break the trendline? The path of least resistance is up at the moment.

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

NostraD — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 14:30:05 -0000

Recent lurker. New blogger.

IWM may form a Doji Star today. Although considered by many to signify a Bearish Reversal, Bulkowski maintains that statistically 69% of the time it is a Bullish Continuation. However, if on Monday there is an opening gap lower with a negative engulfing bar of yesterday's price range, a Bearish Abandoned Baby formation will foretell lower prices...with again Bulkowski's 69% of the time.

With the recent .VIX activity an immediate bullish case seems overwhelming. However, there is a significant .VIX contago occurring which would say that there is downside foretold for January and beyond.

Thanks Tim and others for your efforts. Please have a safe and Merry Christmas.

Re: Does the VIX Trend?

Sebastian19 — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 14:19:07 -0000

I've been thinking the same thing. Maybe the Christmas Eve traders will run the Dow up to 13,500 and drive the vix below 18. Not a prediction of course, but... it could make for an interesting Wednesday morning (not sure about after that)