Now that Government Sachs beat so significantly this will remove any bit of political will that may have existed in the future if indeed a second stimulus is needed in this country! Hopefully this corporate welfare wealth redistributionwill be the catalyst for the American people and COngress to deny these monies in the future. Or perhaps I am being naive and as George Carlin said "They will do whatever the fuc* they want". As a son of WW2 and Vietnam Veterans I can't se how they get kids to fight and die for this bs in todays day and age! This once great country is now a joke!
July 17, July 22 and August 22 remain dates of key cyclic importance. Somewhere in there I continue to look for a final top before a disatrous decline into the late fall and, possibly, the first quarter of 2010 (but not the final decline). That final top MIGHT be a blowoff top higher than the June top and that's my favored scenario. The blowoff continues to be the immensely improbable event based upon the near plurality of analysts (including Prechter, Neely, et al) expecting at least a large downward correction and 99% of the armchair TA amateurs. That answer is pretty obvious. Didn't someone say something about the rightness and wrongness of the obvious in the stock market?
The widely followed H&S is well developed and by classic definition and evaluation (Edwards/Magee) it's 80% certain of completion. However, it is NOT confirmed by classic definition. If the neckline is 880, then confirmation occurs at a 3% break of the neckline (again Edwards/Magee). That's 853 on the close, not intraday price. Within striking distance, but no brass ring.
And a blowoff top, say 10%, how often does that occur? Not often, but look at the last year. There was a two-day blowoff >10% on Sept 18/19 in just the last year alone and several other very large blowoffs. The greatest rallies in history occur in bear markets (per Prechter but you can prove that). More often than you'd think. It would be fitting that this grinding advance from the March low would capped by a blowoff that would crush bears, give strong hands the ability to distribute at higher prices, remove the ratable covering (buying) and reisistance by bears on the subsequent way down (making the crash that much swifter), and perfectly set up the expected decline to make it that much bigger. How poetic.
From an EW standpoint, what about the chaos (overlapping) of a short squeeze ending diagonal to cap the complex correction and great bear rally we've had since the March low? An ending diagonal would fit perfectly. Highly, highly improbable.
So, will that great bear rally go out with a whimper or stand up for its proper execution? I'm proud to be a bear standing up for dead bulls walking.
Good luck everyone, Jim
molecool
· 5 months ago
If Tim is having doubts suddenly I'm feeling even more bearish - no offense Tim-aayyy ;-)
KumoBob
· 5 months ago
I recently decided that since the markets direction is without any doubt DOWN; I would simply buy short funds, and never go into margin. It has allowed me to look at the market in a very subjective, relaxed, and causal way. I don't care how bad my account looks I know I will be right at some point.
Since we ended on a upward five count I'm sure the market will correct, but I doubt it will begin the decent we were looking for any time soon.
Vicodin and vodka tonic helps me cope, lol -- Sent from my T-Mobile Sidekick®
viscous
· 5 months ago
:o)
vodka_tonic
· 5 months ago
vodka....all problems are solved by this liquid :)
Bear
· 5 months ago
welcome ... good post
Velobear
· 5 months ago
Short at the open.
yazzer
· 5 months ago
Still think the SPX 500 will indeed be 500 within 12-18 months...
InthePink
· 5 months ago
is that what your crystal ball said? or did you give it to someone else
yazzer
· 5 months ago
My crystal ball's been stuck on that number for a long time...sorta like my VCR clock is stuck at 12:00 (and flashing)
InthePink
· 5 months ago
haha, just need to reset it
Brand
· 5 months ago
The wrath awaits. Just a matter of time...
opalchip
· 5 months ago
Well, I agree with Tim that we're at a telling juncture - which is why I am loaded with SPY puts right now. I added some more late in the day, not because I'm terribly optimistic about their future, but because we're so close to the point where I'll be bailing on the position that it's worth averaging in. (That's pretty much the only time I average in -immediately before my stop level. 2/3 of the time I end up losing a little bit more, and about 1/3 I end up very happy.) If we go any higher tomorrow I simply have to exit and eat the loss, because SPY will have penetrated BOTH the 8 and 16 day EMA's to the upside. That is generally not a hopeful situation to be short into.
molecool
· 5 months ago
The last few minutes of today's sesson were a great spot to load up - and if we break higher tomorrow the damage is contained even on a gap.
chartsandcoffee
· 5 months ago
I often use this strategy as well.
Bear
· 5 months ago
I like that entry strategy also (e.g., use it a lot when shorting into resistance) because the exit or point of failure is very clear ...
prescient11
· 5 months ago
What I want to know is, is the whole fucking world nuts?? Except for a few select players everyone is going to be more screwed by the fools running this country. They are going to raise taxes, put cap and trade on everything and then shove socialized medicine down our throats all at once.
HOW IN THE WORLD ARE WE GOING TO PAY FOR ALL OF THIS????????
This is insane!! Sorry, just venting. But we should have broken 800 by now and I cannot believe it has taken that long. Guess what UE is moving up dramatically. We are losing plenty of jobs. Ghost towns are everywhere, commercial and residential. Nobody is buying consumer goods. Nobody. I was at a car dealership on a weekend recently. WE WERE THE ONLY ONES THERE!! This is going to take years to work through, not a few Qs!!!!!!!
Greg
· 5 months ago
Yep you're right, but the market will go up anyway. Read the charts.
prescient11
· 5 months ago
I've got to say Greg, screw the charts right now. Honestly, and I love the various charts that people provide here, but do the charts factor in intentional interference which we know is occurring? That's my biggest gripe on reading the bones for any long term trend.
If this was just how it was, then I think you could turn to that. But right now I don't know. And a lot of the charts are pointing hard down.
It's all just very confusing.
Greg
· 5 months ago
Well, last week early it seemed to me we due for some bounce nonsense, so I took profits & closed my shorts (a day early), but no big deal.
Sunday I looked at 1000 charts, & my take was the majority by a big margin were saying bounce. I commented Sunday about that. Late in the evening I tweeted that their was a good long opportunity on the ES. This mornings zig zag was classic BS at it's finest. I had to get in to work early or I'd gave played the ES up from the low.
I haven't bothered to look at charts tonight as I suspect there is more to this bounce.
My view is critical long term support has been breached, and we are in the death throws of this bullish nonsense. I'll give it another day to play out, & then see what the charts en mass tell me.
My style of trading doesn't depend on cliff dives, so missing out hurts me less then getting short too early.
A little patience is necessary as da boyz milk the dumb money for what they can before they let it rip. Rip to the downside it will in due time. The clue is volume. Keep an eye on it. It tells the real story.
prescient11
· 5 months ago
Gotcha, peace my friend, always enjoy your thoughts and posts.
Greg
· 5 months ago
One thing I wonder about, is as a trader I've improved my game substantially over the last two years, yet find it the challenge of a lifetime and very hard work to make consistant profits. If I find it a close combat knife fight after thousands of hours of study & effort, the average trader has got to be close to the breaking point. It seems to me with a zero net game in the market, it may not be too long before all that's left is one quant computer trading against another.
In da boyz effort to take an ever increasing portion of the sheeples money they may end up few participants for which to fleece.
AudioTactics
· 5 months ago
The only good solid trade recently (in SPY) was being long Monday morning for the ride...
But that being said I still missed the trade as I was up all night reading then missed the open, then woke up at 9 after like 3 hours of sleep and was so out of it that I couldn't think straight and hesitated while the market ran up and I just sat there and watched it get away from my 87.65 entry level and watched run all the way up.
It's frustrating to miss a set up like that and yes, I agree that the markets are massively challenging. For me it has been about identifying strategies that work and then being consistent and true to your style.
Boldly They Rode
· 5 months ago
Long GDX at 36.40 ish
toad37
· 5 months ago
Mornin' Bob- I'm letting the first hour of the market to go by... Watching for bull or bear traps.
Boldly They Rode
· 5 months ago
Mornin' Toad. Yep. Liquidity is a one street in this market.
thyname
· 5 months ago
HNT - down more than 18%
Boldly They Rode
· 5 months ago
Are you short?
thyname
· 5 months ago
I wish I were short. I was long a few weeks ago.
Boldly They Rode
· 5 months ago
Lord be praised. So was I. :)
Ali
· 5 months ago
Short AIG at 15.70. Stop above 10EMA.
Edit: Small day trade
garo
· 5 months ago
Longer term: .AIGWT anyone?
thegutterball
· 5 months ago
nice call there
Flatlander
· 5 months ago
Nice call!
Ali
· 5 months ago
Covered at around 14.50.
thegutterball
· 5 months ago
nice trade. can i ask something as i am trying to learn this stuff...how do you choose what period sma/ema to use? how did you decide 10 ema on this one?
Ali
· 5 months ago
I have 10, 34, 50 and 200 EMAs switched on when I'm cycling through daily charts, and look to see if prices are reacting off any of those levels. Often prices will just bounce off which ever is nearest. Lots of people use the 20 and 65 EMAs as well I hear, but I don't like too many lines on my charts.
I use the 10 EMA as a guideline for picking out the ST trend and as a general rule prefer to short only when prices are below the line or buy when above. I read the other day that Brinkley uses 9EMA and Gregg uses 8EMA, so I guess it's a matter of personal preference. I use the 10 EMA, because I figure this is the line other people are most likely to be looking at and therefore the most relevant to price action.
Simple as that really.
Ali
· 5 months ago
Did I sell too early or what? Story of my life.
mikevadon
· 5 months ago
Did anyone notice the GDX Gold miners are at the bottom of their channel?
fwiw ... he got that chart and idea (the VIX chart for the July 13th video) from John Murphy over at stockcharts (John posted the exact same chart before Maurice on the stockcharts subscription service on July 10th, Friday) ...
artandtrade
· 5 months ago
I've been watching every night for awhile now...very sharp guy
MarioChalmers
· 5 months ago
I've been watching him every night since you posted it last week...Can't wait to see today's update. ;)
Clocktower
· 5 months ago
Lately I have been studying the Dollar Index and its relationship to the Broad Market and in my opinion this tight range we have seen in the Dollar Index since June 1st is setting up for more upside in the major indexes.
The Dollar Index has had about 30 days now to break above the trendline from 6/8 to Today and has failed everytime. And now it is very close to the lower trendline of 79.78 ---
I think that this summer is going to be different and that instead of a repeat of last July and August, I think we are going to see a Summer Rally on light volume to TK's target of 1065 on SPX and maybe that higher line of 1,200 on SPX.
Watch the Dollar Index closely to see which way it breaks out...If it is to the downside, I highly encourage you to go long the junior mining stocks like HL, SSRI, and SLW.
It takes alot of balls to be short going into GS earnings from a fellow Sloper.
fuzzygreysocks
· 5 months ago
I think you've inadvertantly helped me figure out where the heck any rally is going to come from.
A lot of this post-MAR 9 run was simple $USD devaluation through every announcement of every Tom, Dick & Harry bailout our gov't could announce. We've had a break of new announcements for about a month. I think some of the big GM et al bailouts were the last. $USD isn't looking too shabby. High gas prices act as a artificial FFR hike. But now summer Existing Homes Sales will start to wane. Green shoots will become the green squirts (to be polite). And there's been a counter argument to a second stimulus that only about 10% to quarter of the first stimulus has even been spent. So... I think we can expect the rest of that $USD devaluing debt can start being more aggressively shoveled-out the front door to devalue the $USD, prop up commodities, prop up alt.energy, and prop up 401k/IRAs.
Previously I couldn't see that happening. Now I do.
I think SPX >1000 is doable, now. Thanks.
Clocktower
· 5 months ago
I agree with your thinking and in addition, imagine the headline grabber when the SPX hits 1,000 from the media. At the moment, the retail crowd has three options:
a) they are in cash and if they are their new money will continue to push prices higher,
b) they have ridden this rollarcoaster since last year and have resigned to do nothing and continue to ride it up and down, thus not cashing out like last year
c. Obamanomics like health care and cap and trade will NOT get pass the Senate! And when this debate becomes made even more clearly, even Obama will realize that and give up these grand ideas, you may recall that after Hillary gave up her Health Care bill in 1993 --- it was in 1994 that the market took off.
d. Stimulus bill will not pass and this will restore fiscal confidence to the market.
e. US policymakers are at a crossroads, enact Obamanomics or rebuild America they old fashioned way ...wake up and go to work....
Either way PM stocks are a winner. As a hedge or took ride the Inflation trade
you remind me of Esteban Reyes from the show Weeds
YogiBehr
· 5 months ago
My newbie chart on SPX from around december I think...nevermind the shaded area...that's just something I was goofing with about comparing earnings times of certain companies to the S&P
channel it is sitting in now is 880 to 944...it's off a 5yr weekly
The H&S shows up nicely on your chart, Yogi. With the weekly view, we need 1 or 2 more good up days to complete the pattern, before we head down.
Dunno how this is going to play out.
YogiBehr
· 5 months ago
I think the market had settled into a lull and was actually behaving as it should for the last couple weeks. Complacency breeds contempt....so they snubbed it and people sucked it up big today.
Nice link Drainage. It took a while to get through it. The irony is that they do list "where they are finding value" and will never cease to attempt to pull out a smoldering winner. So it goes.
ricco
· 5 months ago
Madonna!! Nice call on QLD this morning KP. Was thinking the same and talked myself out of it. Oh well, there's always tomorrow.
MarioChalmers
· 5 months ago
I read that last week. GAME OVER.
Insect Overlord
· 5 months ago
I agree...whatever "growth" we have is IMHO unsustainable. Every time we go up, it's a headfake. It's just going to be tough to realize that when things are going up and (if you're like me) your account mostly goes down in the process. But every move up provides a getter entry to profit from what I believe will be a solid and unavoidable move down. When the move occurs is anyone's guess with all the $$$ Goldman Sucks and the PPT are flooding the market with to persuade the dumb money that everything is OK.
vodka_tonic
· 5 months ago
the biggest day of the month and our host TK is sleeping in >:)
chemE
· 5 months ago
Bob Pisani had something done with his voice. It's not as high and pitchy as before. What a freak.
Goldman-Schmoldman...they got their comeuppance in store before long...my grandmother could make big-time bucks as CEO of that manipulated institution...
ISLDGUY
· 5 months ago
Point well taken. I was simply looking for an excuse to write "apron wearing, jam making."
yazzer
· 5 months ago
+1
ISLDGUY
· 5 months ago
Sounds like your grandmother might be something more than the traditional apron wearing, jam making grandmother I've come to know and love. Well, use to love. She's dead now.
yazzer
· 5 months ago
Mine is passed too (rest her soul) but, with all the government money pumped into GS, my point is anyone can "make" money there...somebody's gotta pay it back - in one form or the other - sooner or later. It'll be paid back with abyssmal market levels within the next year or year and a half IMHO...or vis hyper-sonic inflation
Rd99Hse1
· 5 months ago
welcome back mr. isld
ISLDGUY
· 5 months ago
And a very good morning to you as well. The birds are singing, the rooster is crowing. Literally.
castle
· 5 months ago
Lower high followed by a lower low, first time in awhile...
Here's my question, everyone has been doom and gloom on the markets for some time now. What the hell changed today?? MW did an interview and said buy GS because they have been gaming the markets so their trading profits will be awesome.
ONly real news is that CIT is on the brink of bk!!!! Should be good for another 300 point rally in the morning.
chemE
· 5 months ago
Technical bounce. If we move past 912 or so then I suggest going long and staying long til at least 1000 maybe more.
jayinasia
· 5 months ago
+1 for being the voice of reason. I can't believe some of the things I read on here. Just a few days ago, many people were hoping for a bounce so they could short. Now that they got it they are scared of the move. I really hope that most of the comments are just blowing off steam and this is not how they really trade. We bounced up to 50% fib from 1 June. That's all I see and I will wait to see more to know if I should change tactics or not. Now is too early.
Majestic_Lion
· 5 months ago
I'll tell you why I feel so rejected. It's the daily tape for the past several days. Last week, we made several attempts to break thru and close below the 875 area.....which is close enough to the neckline of the H&S. Each day, including Friday we popped back up towards the end of the day forming a doji or something close. The key here is that we were unable to close below 875. Friday was especially hard on the bears. Bulls were confident enough to take positions over the weekend, and bears absolutely had no conviction to follow through a h&S that looked so strong. So we have at least 3 days of closing at support with neither bull nor bear in control and all of a sudden today we have this huge, powerful push up today. It's hard not to see this as a potentially failed h&s, especially after being beatin up for the past 2+ months. At the very least, we are looking at a very very complex h&s pattern with a lot of uncertainty. I think many bears like me believe that Government Sachs and Obama are widow makers for bears.
Bear
· 5 months ago
Thanks Tim ... I think that your eye is on the right charts ... and today's move by the financials has caused quite a few in the technical analysis community (at least who I follow) some concern ... you are in good company with your sentiments about today ...
We'll see how far the GS crew (and their sycophants) can push up price this week ... they have moved the SPX above its neckline on the current H&S pattern in one day ... and they know right where to push price to create the most pain ...
pikertrader
· 5 months ago
I like Carl's neckline, it trends up instead of just a HL. It makes more sense.
Bear
· 5 months ago
fwiw ... Murphy has had the same neckline on his charts ... he mentioned this evening that he is watching for the next 2 to 3 days before he changes his stance about the probabilities of the H&S on the SPX ... but he thought that the 6% move by the financials was reason enough to exercise some caution ...
toad37
· 5 months ago
Caution indeed... BUT, if we push to 910-913 and get any kind of stall, I'll short big with fairly tight stop...
mikevadon
· 5 months ago
Oh come on Tim. Price most always retraces to the support line it broke. How many charts have you posted in the last two years where price broke a support line and then it retraced back to that line.
On the $SPX chart that I am looking at...all I see is lower lows and lower highs since June 11th. I guess in the next five days we will see who are the weak hands who just dabble in trading as a hobby and those who are the real traders.
Lower lows? Run a 5 day. 870, 873, 875. Looks like higher lows to me. Where's Tamas anyway. He gave me an "LOL. Just wait" when I said it looked like Bulls starting to gain momentum last week. Hope he had stops in place. Today was huge no matter how you measure it. Today could be a blip but if we break 912 then I can't go short again until we break 870.
mikevadon
· 5 months ago
I am talking about inflection lows and inflection highs not short term momentum.
1200 SPX is utter and sheer nonsense. Institutions besides MM would be sold out and out of dodge because of breaking fiduciary responsibilities. . by the way, I have a half million dollar house I can sell you.... technical on the Case shiller chart screaming bounce right? why not?
MarioChalmers
· 5 months ago
Yep, read Hunt's first quarter report and have been waiting for this one to come out. This one is one the money too. Hard to argue with those facts, deflation for a loooong time.
Mauldlin posts some truly great stuff. I really look forward to him.
Junkie4Life
· 5 months ago
Mary Armstrong argues against it, frankly he has a better track record than most.
MarioChalmers
· 5 months ago
Who's Mary Armstrong? Do you have a link to her (his?) counter argument? I've read both views for the past year and this particular line of thinking has really swayed me over to the D side.
CastorTroy
· 5 months ago
I think it's a buy the rumor, sell the news kind of deal. We will see. It's odd how one day has turned bears from overconfident to uneasy... Like they got hit by a drunk truck driver. http://tinyurl.com/lwt2gd
TheKing
· 5 months ago
Good point CastorTroy. That's why more people don't profit from H&S patterns. "Right full rudder. I'll shake the man loose!"
Majestic_Lion
· 5 months ago
Sure felt like a drunk and high truck driver to me.
TheKing
· 5 months ago
Oh, I have Sept puts on SPY that got hurt. But it's different when you expect some !@#$% rally. I was surprised it came from Whitney. I must wonder if she's on the take, cause that was a pile of donkey doo going on CNBC with "short term" picks like that. oh well. I expected a shake out and got one. No worries. I'll still be taking other people's money when this is all said and done.
wex
· 5 months ago
She is very ambitious and committed to her customers and her business. I would make a big bet that select people knew what she was going to say.
TheKing
· 5 months ago
I have no doubt she's all of that. And her customers *should* know beforehand what she was going to say. And they *should* have profited handsomely. Otherwise, why pay her for service? I have a lot of respect for her, which is why I was frustrated by today's events. (I still call 'donkey doo' on her comments). But again, no matter. We were going to get a pop from somewhere. And today was nice and smooth - wonderful drop in the VIX. I hate chasing a H&S pattern trying to add to a position when it's plummeting.
Junkie4Life
· 5 months ago
GOLD broke out today and its not singaling downtrend no more, 905 was the low for this mini-cycle. My miners led the indicator and screamed higher, some were as high as 12% on no news and very little volume. Tomorrow is telling for the silver/gold ratio and its showing it trending higher.
I thought this week would be a lot like last week but when this morning's high was broken I sold my FAZ and got long FAS.
-1.3% in FAZ +8.4% in FAS
heywally
· 5 months ago
I think that now, there are no important levels, only earnings and how much the government(s) will or won't make things worse. With a dash of geopolitical on the side burner.
Everyone knows what everyone knows.
In general, I would buy extreme weakness (learn how to define that) slowly and sell into strength. When it gets too toppy again, go to cash but do not short. Repeat often on/if pullback. I do fine with that formula; it's when I try and throw shorting into the mix that I run into problems.
jamesmarkii
· 5 months ago
studying FAS and FAZ 60 min charts i think i might have an option play here calculations and estimates.... FAZ 6/17=53.70, 6/23=55.00, 7/09=59.70(estimated Week of July 20th=60 to $62.00) FAS 6/17=41.99, 6/23=39.65, 7/09=35.10 (estimated week of July 20th= 30-$32.00)
August FAZ $60 calls 3.50x3.80 per contract (estimated profit 200-250%) FAZ HH August FAS $30 puts 1.55x1.65 per contract (estimated profit 300-400%) FAS TD
If this happens the way i wrote this. Enshrine me and start my own blog. :)
dont buy until Friday 12-2pm or SPX 908-912 levels (should we reach them)
EminiMe
· 5 months ago
I could see more upside if the earnings are very good, but I don't see another reason for much more of a bounce.
Tim, this is just killing me. I agree, we could have the idiots make one more run up in the snp before we head down. How many damn record profits can we have in the worst UE environment since the Depression. It's unbelieable.
jamesmarkii
· 5 months ago
im there with you bro...
Dr Livesey
· 5 months ago
Hi Tim, I thing the important level is 908, if we will break it, the market will go heigher. But independent from this level, we are still in the corrective down move, with a minor target of 840. Don't panic.
A bullish call on GS pulled up the whole market today, this is not the basis for a sturdy rally. GS doesn't have the nasty loan portfolio and credit card exposure of its brethren in its sector. Looking at the top holdings of IYF by weight: 9.45% JPM JPMORGAN CHASE&CO 8.09% WFC WELLS FARGO&COMPAN Y 7.12% BAC BANK OF AMERICA CORP 4.72% GS GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC 2.55% BK BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP 2.46% MS MORGAN STANLEY 2.28% USB US BANCORP 2.09% V VISA INC-CLASS A SHRS 1.92% AXP AMERICAN EXPRESS CO 1.79% TRV TRAVELERS COS INC/TH It is hard to consider aggressively buying the bulk of these stocks, particularly after a day where they gained 7-10%.
Meredith Whitney may have given us a gift today - a little more pop before the drop.
Long SKF.
Majestic_Lion
· 5 months ago
What gift, Drainage?
TK said his portfolio took it on the chin. I'm embarrassed to describe where my portfolio took it, in polite company.
Drainage
· 5 months ago
The gift to reload short positions. I'm sorry your portfolio took a licking today, but today was a very strange and contrived day.
enoeht
· 5 months ago
Went short Jul 155 GS and long Aug 155. Hoping for a quick pop to 160 and then a fade to mid 150's tomorrow. Also wrote puts on WMT, CVS and VZ which generated good money today. I dont mind owning these stocks if I had to take delivery.
Ashraf Laidi is Chief Market Strategist of CMC Markets, author of "Currency Trading & Intermarket Analysis" and founder of AshrafLaidi.com. At CMC Markets, Laidi oversees the analysis and strategy functions of key currency pairs as well as decisions and trends of the major global central banks. He is also responsible for educating and informing clients on the essential dynamics underpinning FX, Commodity and Credit markets. Prior to joining CMC Markets, Mr. Laidi was an analyst at a United Nations-specialized agency, monitoring global fixed income and equity portfolios. He also served as chief FX strategist at MG Financial Group where he pioneered online FX analysis for retail investors via the creation of the first 24-hour currency portal. His other experience included emerging market fixed income at Reuters and assessing sovereign and project investment risk consulting with the World Bank. His insights can be found on www.AshrafLaidi.com. Mr. Laidi provides expert commentary on CNBC, Bloomberg TV, and his insights can be found regularly on the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal.
Book While the mechanics of forex markets and the theories underpinning them have been largely explored, there has been little discussion regarding the practical intermarket relationships shaping currencies via interest rates, equities, and commodities. "Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis" is the first work to provide illustrative and indepth analysis on the evolving relationships shaping currencies, metals, energy and agricultural commodities, while devoting full chapters on the increasingly important topics of risk appetite, yield curves and how these underpin currencies. Ashraf's approach to gold/oil ratios and yield curves enabled him to call the beginning of the Fed's interest rate cuts four months before their realization in August 2007, while predicting the erosion in yen crosses.
Adam_G
· 5 months ago
Ashraf's book is on my reading list. I've never played forex because I think it is some giant roulette wheel, but a good book on what causes movements might change my opinion.
As to INTC earnings, that's easy - it's similar every quarter: Revenues down, Earnings disappointing (or just at expected), Inventory up, BUT management believes vast improvement expected industry-wide by 2 quarters out. How the market reacts to that basic script is different every time.
re: getting Nuked by one stupid new event as the catalyst... I refer you all again to the whipsaw song: "What do you do with a hot news flash, honey? Stash that flash right in the trash!" Of course, that means follow market action, not the news itself - and so far as Tim seems to imply above - it's not quite "hit the ejector button" time yet - though it's close.
DrStock
· 5 months ago
TIm, like I said in my friday post, I believe were in for an fast rally starting today (firday) or the first couple of days next week. Earnings will be "better" then the street thinks. Every one has been cuttting to the bone so any extra business will go to the bottom line. I have two businesses and there has been a up swing in the last month. Do not ask me why, I'll just take it. STU has it right, but we will not see low 800's in the S&P. We will rise till fall, then the drop will happen. Just my observation. Thanks for all the good work you do, Sam.
foelogic
· 5 months ago
What I have right now
Futures portfolio - /ES short- Mid Sized; USO Long; FAZ Limit order for morning Equity portfolio - 5 short equities (40%) - ACE, AMT, BIDU, BLK, WMS
Im looking for small rally to increase /ES position and buy 5 more short equities. Im going to hang onto USO and FAZ for a long time unless they get stopped out, I think they are both very pretty charts. TK pointed USO, although his stance changed to bearish long term. Let's see what happens.
Lasty, the VIX seems to slowing down it's downward movement. Beginning of Bottom? Good Lucky.
jancouver
· 5 months ago
FAZ is not a long term play. Why do you think they just did the reverse split? FAZ will be $5 (maybe $10) stock in 6 to 12 months again.
Think it depends entirely on GS, BAC, and JPM earnings/guidance. More pressure on GS now for upside 'surprise'.
toad37
· 5 months ago
Anyone scalping /es tonight?
InthePink
· 5 months ago
hey toad, I lucked out with a very small short from 897-893.75 earlier this evening; haven't done anything since
toad37
· 5 months ago
Nice Pink, you had another great day. I'm tempted to try and scalp a couple points to the long side this evening. ;-)
Insect Overlord
· 5 months ago
Even if I could, I would likely not...nowhere near a pivot point or an area i would call decent resistance (or support). I'm real curious to see what the market will do tomorrow morning.
toad37
· 5 months ago
I hear ya, but I think it pushes up on anticipation of Goldman Sucks cooked as hell books.
dumbpainter
· 5 months ago
isn't 898.25 resistance enough...being a double top from last tuesday?
Here is my current view regarding the ES: Hit resistance @ 897 (50% Fib). There is a high volume node around the 893 area to which it kissed in Globex trading, and resumed higher. Odds likely favor that the ES will continue higher, since it is in a trading channel, and will likely hit the top of the channel, 10 pts away. There is some notable resistance around 904 (the 61.8% Fib), and R1 is located @ 907.
So for Tuesday’s trading, let’s remember these numbers: > 907: gap fill 907: R1 904: 61.8% Fib 897: 50% Fib 886: intraday pivot 874: S1
hey you're welcome Moo. If at least 2 people see it the same way, that's a good thing!
Insect Overlord
· 5 months ago
Has anyone noticed that the calls (for August) on the VIX are more than twice as expensive as their corresponding puts? (e.g. the Aug 22.5 call which is $4 ITM is 8.50, where the Aug 30 put (also $4 ITM) is going for about 2.50)
Yep. I was looking at those earlier and thought the same thing.
jayinasia
· 5 months ago
One day does not make a reversal.
Asia is up strong. Singapore is out of recession with strongest growth in 6 years.
Personally, BSE is up strongly. The leader in Asia, Kospi, is only up 0.5% while the rest are up 1.5++. This is what you like to see if your short.
Anyway, I could be wrong and this isn't a bounce and a major reversal. If it is my stops will take me out. What can I do until then?
Good luck.
Ali
· 5 months ago
Yes, strongest quarter on quarter growth. Year on year growth however is a rousing -3.7%.
I looked through the economic bulletin and was amused at how no data points were provided for export performance. Presumably Singapore can stage an genuine economic recovery without the participation of its biggest contributor to GDP...
Ali
· 5 months ago
Just in case people thought they were trying to pull the wool over their eyes, the Singapore government added the following, buried at the back of their advanced GDP report:
"Notwithstanding the improved performance in the second quarter, the outlook for the rest of the year remains largely unchanged - of a weak recovery susceptible to downside risks. For instance, rising unemployment and reduced household spending in the advanced economies such as the US and the Eurozone reflect continued weaknesses in the global economy. Housing markets in many leading economies have yet to bottom out, while financial institutions are still in the process of deleveraging. At this juncture, there is no evidence yet of a decisive improvement in final demand.
A sizeable part of Singapore' s manufacturing uptick in the first half of 2009 came from a spike in biomedical manufacturing output and electronics inventory restocking, both of which may not be sustained."
jayinasia
· 5 months ago
Nice.
EDC
· 5 months ago
a friend of mine went to Singapore recently and said that there were empty cargo ships for miles.
I can agree with you, not sure how they are out of a recession when they require consumption from their exports. Wages there are very low.
jayinasia
· 5 months ago
I hear ya. It's different this time doncha know? My wording up top is a bit confusing. I'm actually short and thinking these are all overdue bounces. Time will tell.
Ali
· 5 months ago
If I knew how to trade STI futures, I might be tempted to short at these levels.
Do they do mini index futures? Are they liquid?
jayinasia
· 5 months ago
Ali, not sure where you are but check out phillip futures pte ltd. U can trade everything. Cme, cbot, etc. STI futures are S$10 per point. Margin nego. Volume as good as u will get in Asia but less than US of course. Fyi. If u r us citizen can b problematic. Tax issues, etc.
- original message - Subject: [slope] Re: Important Point
FranklinBeenz
· 5 months ago
Tim, why'd you bail on TBT, so soon? Seems like a decent setup here.
glh
· 5 months ago
Hey TK, Are you planning to hold your short on LLL? I'm probably going to have to close my position. Looks like it's going to open above the trend line I had drawn. We'll see. http://screencast.com/t/br4dNoQDw
Also saw this news fwiw.
7/14/2009 07:56:24 AM L-3 Communications gets upgrade from J.P. Morgan NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Analysts at J.P. Morgan lifted their rating Tuesday on L-3 Communications to overweight from neutral, citing valuation. "While the company faces some fundamental headwinds, we believe concerns are overblown and find LLL's valuation compelling," they wrote. They also upped their price target on the New York-based defense contractor's stock to $80 from $74. L-3 shares closed Monday at $66.28.
garo
· 5 months ago
Goldman beats as expected. $4.93 EPS vs estimates of $3.49.
Stringmusic24
· 5 months ago
....hooray!!!! Finally we see our tax money at work!!
garo
· 5 months ago
+1
garo
· 5 months ago
Ooh looks like it is a sell-the-news thingy today unless this is a fakeout in which case we will go up shortly.
anyone have thoughts on these charts? Fundies would suggest buy also to me, as I feel Obama will try to pump 'green' so he can claim he delivered on creating 'green collar' jobs with the stimulus. ENER is kinda ugly, but may be a double bottom that just peeked past
garo
· 5 months ago
Did anyone else notice this? Most of the sales came in Nov-Jan when GS stock was at lows.
I thought AIG was the Chuck Norris of financials - up around 100% from Friday's lows to today's high.
InthePink
· 5 months ago
AIG can be his partner... Trivette?
Ali
· 5 months ago
So who's going to be the Bruce Lee to kick both their arses?
InthePink
· 5 months ago
CIT group haha
Ali
· 5 months ago
LOL!
Ali
· 5 months ago
LOL!
nummy
· 5 months ago
dont forget business inventories numbers come out at 10:00 AM EST. this could give one final push up before we get a nice pullback.
writersblock
· 5 months ago
Came in at -1.0%, consensus was -0.8%. Not sure this is having any effect, but when you couple this with the rise in the PPI (+1.8%), and add the anemic Retail Sales (+0.6%), they paint not a pretty picture in terms of sales going forward.
On the other hand, you could also look at these numbers and think that businesses are responding correctly to weak sales. Sales down, producer prices up, so let the inventories drop, without replacing them, as quickly as possible. Clear your shelves, then, when demand picks up (think "Back to School"), the increase in price will be justifiable.
Not sure how any of this affects our trading, but it's interesting.
Barney
· 5 months ago
MLM cut estimates.
CAT downgrade neg for CMI.
Boldly They Rode
· 5 months ago
Short IP at 14.90
Bear
· 5 months ago
Adding short positions in GE and WHR ...
garo
· 5 months ago
Itching to add more GE here. Suffering over the past couple of days because I did not put a tight enough stop on my September puts. So I have watched them dwindle but believe time to still be on my side.
yazzer
· 5 months ago
Try Gold Bond for that Itch!
garo
· 5 months ago
Thanks, that was a big-ass itch.
garo
· 5 months ago
Deleted. Disqus screwup.
garo
· 5 months ago
Deleted. Disqus screwup.
garo
· 5 months ago
Deleted. Disqus screwup.
garo
· 5 months ago
What is this I see? FAZ is green?
yazzer
· 5 months ago
Total hunch here: this market looks very much like yesterday - open kinda FLAT, MMs take 'er down and then back to even....yesterday then saw a strong trend up-day...I am feeling today will be the opposite. Maybe not as strongly down but down a good bit nonetheless - we'll see...
Modab
· 5 months ago
I sure hope so Yazzer...... I LIKE YOUR TRAIN OF THOUGHT....makes great market sense
not sure how far we can pull back but this week is going to be volitle.....INTC after hours will have a possible market moving announcement. I cant see how they can give positive guidance..but you just never know.
yazzer
· 5 months ago
Well, we shall see - my mojo has been pretty good of late BUT - there's a sprinkling of days that have been completely WRONG! LOL!
InthePink
· 5 months ago
I'm thinking we may jsut get some oscillating and range trade until teh afternoon... could be wrong of course
RichRR
· 5 months ago
My market direction compass is spinning...must be a UFO nearby....
Modab
· 5 months ago
Thats what I see as well Pink,
Although I would like to see a sell of as I am sitting short....I think we stay around the flat to down a little area /ES 893 and wait for INTC after hours
Based off of the move from yesterday to pre-open...I see $89.95 support for the SPY....a break below that level can take us to $89.41 and $88.97.
Might cover my short for now and wait and see how the day plays out. Will give it a little room to wiggle around first.
GL
InthePink
· 5 months ago
Modab, I agree, I think we should hit 893s at some point. Figured it would be in the AM though.... Right now I'm sitting in a small short @ 896.25, looking for about 3 pts target. This VWAP oscillation is a killer
yazzer
· 5 months ago
maybe so Pink, I guess my mojo is just not telling me we're going UP today. Still, though, every attempt at a rally is met with some pretty good selling....that being said, there's a desparate line-in-the-sand being defended at SPY = 90.0 (which kinda just broke as I was writing this)
InthePink
· 5 months ago
I agree that 900 is being defended by the bears... though within the next few days I believe we need to hit the top of the channel; not much higher though
All Comments
The widely followed H&S is well developed and by classic definition and evaluation (Edwards/Magee) it's 80% certain of completion. However, it is NOT confirmed by classic definition. If the neckline is 880, then confirmation occurs at a 3% break of the neckline (again Edwards/Magee). That's 853 on the close, not intraday price. Within striking distance, but no brass ring.
And a blowoff top, say 10%, how often does that occur? Not often, but look at the last year. There was a two-day blowoff >10% on Sept 18/19 in just the last year alone and several other very large blowoffs. The greatest rallies in history occur in bear markets (per Prechter but you can prove that). More often than you'd think. It would be fitting that this grinding advance from the March low would capped by a blowoff that would crush bears, give strong hands the ability to distribute at higher prices, remove the ratable covering (buying) and reisistance by bears on the subsequent way down (making the crash that much swifter), and perfectly set up the expected decline to make it that much bigger. How poetic.
From an EW standpoint, what about the chaos (overlapping) of a short squeeze ending diagonal to cap the complex correction and great bear rally we've had since the March low? An ending diagonal would fit perfectly. Highly, highly improbable.
So, will that great bear rally go out with a whimper or stand up for its proper execution? I'm proud to be a bear standing up for dead bulls walking.
Good luck everyone, Jim
Since we ended on a upward five count I'm sure the market will correct, but I doubt it will begin the decent we were looking for any time soon.
Below is a link to my recent count. I would love it if someone were to shoot it full of holes, as I am long FAZ.
http://fibonacci-financial.blogspot.com/2009/07...
--
Sent from my T-Mobile Sidekick®
HOW IN THE WORLD ARE WE GOING TO PAY FOR ALL OF THIS????????
This is insane!! Sorry, just venting. But we should have broken 800 by now and I cannot believe it has taken that long. Guess what UE is moving up dramatically. We are losing plenty of jobs. Ghost towns are everywhere, commercial and residential. Nobody is buying consumer goods. Nobody. I was at a car dealership on a weekend recently. WE WERE THE ONLY ONES THERE!! This is going to take years to work through, not a few Qs!!!!!!!
If this was just how it was, then I think you could turn to that. But right now I don't know. And a lot of the charts are pointing hard down.
It's all just very confusing.
so I took profits & closed my shorts (a day early), but no big deal.
Sunday I looked at 1000 charts, & my take was the majority by a big
margin were saying bounce. I commented Sunday about that. Late in
the evening I tweeted that their was a good long opportunity on the
ES. This mornings zig zag was classic BS at it's finest. I had to
get in to work early or I'd gave played the ES up from the low.
I haven't bothered to look at charts tonight as I suspect there is
more to this bounce.
My view is critical long term support has been breached, and we are in
the death throws of this bullish nonsense. I'll give it another day
to play out, & then see what the charts en mass tell me.
My style of trading doesn't depend on cliff dives, so missing out
hurts me less then getting short too early.
A little patience is necessary as da boyz milk the dumb money for what
they can before they let it rip. Rip to the downside it will in due
time. The clue is volume. Keep an eye on it. It tells the real story.
In da boyz effort to take an ever increasing portion of the sheeples money they may end up few participants for which to fleece.
But that being said I still missed the trade as I was up all night reading then missed the open, then woke up at 9 after like 3 hours of sleep and was so out of it that I couldn't think straight and hesitated while the market ran up and I just sat there and watched it get away from my 87.65 entry level and watched run all the way up.
It's frustrating to miss a set up like that and yes, I agree that the markets are massively challenging. For me it has been about identifying strategies that work and then being consistent and true to your style.
Edit: Small day trade
I use the 10 EMA as a guideline for picking out the ST trend and as a general rule prefer to short only when prices are below the line or buy when above. I read the other day that Brinkley uses 9EMA and Gregg uses 8EMA, so I guess it's a matter of personal preference. I use the 10 EMA, because I figure this is the line other people are most likely to be looking at and therefore the most relevant to price action.
Simple as that really.
http://mikevadon.blogspot.com/2009/07/gdx-marke...
http://thechartpatterntrader.blogspot.com/
The Dollar Index has had about 30 days now to break above the trendline from 6/8 to Today and has failed everytime. And now it is very close to the lower trendline of 79.78 ---
I think that this summer is going to be different and that instead of a repeat of last July and August, I think we are going to see a Summer Rally on light volume to TK's target of 1065 on SPX and maybe that higher line of 1,200 on SPX.
Watch the Dollar Index closely to see which way it breaks out...If it is to the downside, I highly encourage you to go long the junior mining stocks like HL, SSRI, and SLW.
It takes alot of balls to be short going into GS earnings from a fellow Sloper.
A lot of this post-MAR 9 run was simple $USD devaluation through every announcement of every Tom, Dick & Harry bailout our gov't could announce.
We've had a break of new announcements for about a month.
I think some of the big GM et al bailouts were the last.
$USD isn't looking too shabby.
High gas prices act as a artificial FFR hike.
But now summer Existing Homes Sales will start to wane.
Green shoots will become the green squirts (to be polite).
And there's been a counter argument to a second stimulus that only about 10% to quarter of the first stimulus has even been spent.
So... I think we can expect the rest of that $USD devaluing debt can start being more aggressively shoveled-out the front door to devalue the $USD, prop up commodities, prop up alt.energy, and prop up 401k/IRAs.
Previously I couldn't see that happening.
Now I do.
I think SPX >1000 is doable, now.
Thanks.
a) they are in cash and if they are their new money will continue to push prices higher,
b) they have ridden this rollarcoaster since last year and have resigned to do nothing and continue to ride it up and down, thus not cashing out like last year
c. Obamanomics like health care and cap and trade will NOT get pass the Senate! And when this debate becomes made even more clearly, even Obama will realize that and give up these grand ideas, you may recall that after Hillary gave up her Health Care bill in 1993 --- it was in 1994 that the market took off.
d. Stimulus bill will not pass and this will restore fiscal confidence to the market.
e. US policymakers are at a crossroads, enact Obamanomics or rebuild America they old fashioned way ...wake up and go to work....
Either way PM stocks are a winner. As a hedge or took ride the Inflation trade
channel it is sitting in now is 880 to 944...it's off a 5yr weekly
http://screencast.com/t/LfH8tBXH4
Dunno how this is going to play out.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/17264357/T2-July-3
The irony is that they do list "where they are finding value" and will never cease to attempt to pull out a smoldering winner.
So it goes.
When the move occurs is anyone's guess with all the $$$ Goldman Sucks and the PPT are flooding the market with to persuade the dumb money that everything is OK.
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/vicious
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/viscous
good morning everyone
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_s-of0EmdT_c/SlwV7c_95...
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_s-of0EmdT_c/SlwPUEC81...
ONly real news is that CIT is on the brink of bk!!!! Should be good for another 300 point rally in the morning.
We'll see how far the GS crew (and their sycophants) can push up price this week ... they have moved the SPX above its neckline on the current H&S pattern in one day ... and they know right where to push price to create the most pain ...
On the $SPX chart that I am looking at...all I see is lower lows and lower highs since June 11th. I guess in the next five days we will see who are the weak hands who just dabble in trading as a hobby and those who are the real traders.
Dont forget Bulkowski....
http://thepatternsite.com/Blog.html#P9
Where's Tamas anyway. He gave me an "LOL. Just wait" when I said it looked like Bulls starting to gain momentum last week. Hope he had stops in place. Today was huge no matter how you measure it.
Today could be a blip but if we break 912 then I can't go short again until we break 870.
________________________________
must read
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_maul...
1200 SPX is utter and sheer nonsense. Institutions besides MM would be sold out and out of dodge because of breaking fiduciary responsibilities. .
by the way, I have a half million dollar house I can sell you.... technical on the Case shiller chart screaming bounce right? why not?
Mauldlin posts some truly great stuff. I really look forward to him.
http://tinyurl.com/lwt2gd
"Right full rudder. I'll shake the man loose!"
expect some !@#$% rally. I was surprised it came from Whitney. I must
wonder if she's on the take, cause that was a pile of donkey doo going on
CNBC with "short term" picks like that. oh well. I expected a shake out
and got one. No worries. I'll still be taking other people's money when
this is all said and done.
beforehand what she was going to say. And they *should* have profited
handsomely. Otherwise, why pay her for service? I have a lot of respect
for her, which is why I was frustrated by today's events. (I still call
'donkey doo' on her comments). But again, no matter. We were going to get
a pop from somewhere. And today was nice and smooth - wonderful drop in the
VIX. I hate chasing a H&S pattern trying to add to a position when it's
plummeting.
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/13/goldman-...
-1.3% in FAZ
+8.4% in FAS
Everyone knows what everyone knows.
In general, I would buy extreme weakness (learn how to define that) slowly and sell into strength. When it gets too toppy again, go to cash but do not short. Repeat often on/if pullback. I do fine with that formula; it's when I try and throw shorting into the mix that I run into problems.
FAZ 6/17=53.70, 6/23=55.00, 7/09=59.70(estimated Week of July 20th=60 to $62.00)
FAS 6/17=41.99, 6/23=39.65, 7/09=35.10 (estimated week of July 20th= 30-$32.00)
August FAZ $60 calls 3.50x3.80 per contract (estimated profit 200-250%) FAZ HH
August FAS $30 puts 1.55x1.65 per contract (estimated profit 300-400%) FAS TD
If this happens the way i wrote this. Enshrine me and start my own blog.
:)
dont buy until Friday 12-2pm or SPX 908-912 levels (should we reach them)
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=mini+me&aq...
A bullish call on GS pulled up the whole market today, this is not the basis for a sturdy rally. GS doesn't have the nasty loan portfolio and credit card exposure of its brethren in its sector. Looking at the top holdings of IYF by weight:
9.45% JPM JPMORGAN CHASE&CO
8.09% WFC WELLS FARGO&COMPAN Y
7.12% BAC BANK OF AMERICA CORP
4.72% GS GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC
2.55% BK BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP
2.46% MS MORGAN STANLEY
2.28% USB US BANCORP
2.09% V VISA INC-CLASS A SHRS
1.92% AXP AMERICAN EXPRESS CO
1.79% TRV TRAVELERS COS INC/TH
It is hard to consider aggressively buying the bulk of these stocks, particularly after a day where they gained 7-10%.
Meredith Whitney may have given us a gift today - a little more pop before the drop.
Long SKF.
TK said his portfolio took it on the chin. I'm embarrassed to describe where my portfolio took it, in polite company.
Also wrote puts on WMT, CVS and VZ which generated good money today. I dont mind owning these stocks if I had to take delivery.
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/13/morties-...
Live chat with Ashraf Laidi coming up on BWM's website. Register for live chat at "Live Chat" icon
http://www.bostonwealth.net/author/ashraf/
Ashraf Laidi is Chief Market Strategist of CMC Markets, author of "Currency Trading & Intermarket Analysis" and founder of AshrafLaidi.com. At CMC Markets, Laidi oversees the analysis and strategy functions of key currency pairs as well as decisions and trends of the major global central banks. He is also responsible for educating and informing clients on the essential dynamics underpinning FX, Commodity and Credit markets. Prior to joining CMC Markets, Mr. Laidi was an analyst at a United Nations-specialized agency, monitoring global fixed income and equity portfolios. He also served as chief FX strategist at MG Financial Group where he pioneered online FX analysis for retail investors via the creation of the first 24-hour currency portal. His other experience included emerging market fixed income at Reuters and assessing sovereign and project investment risk consulting with the World Bank. His insights can be found on www.AshrafLaidi.com. Mr. Laidi provides expert commentary on CNBC, Bloomberg TV, and his insights can be found regularly on the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal.
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http://retracementlevels.zstock7.com/
This could potentially be huge.
Huge for what, I don't know.
re: getting Nuked by one stupid new event as the catalyst... I refer you all again to the whipsaw song: "What do you do with a hot news flash, honey? Stash that flash right in the trash!" Of course, that means follow market action, not the news itself - and so far as Tim seems to imply above - it's not quite "hit the ejector button" time yet - though it's close.
Futures portfolio - /ES short- Mid Sized; USO Long; FAZ Limit order for morning
Equity portfolio - 5 short equities (40%) - ACE, AMT, BIDU, BLK, WMS
Im looking for small rally to increase /ES position and buy 5 more short equities. Im going to hang onto USO and FAZ for a long time unless they get stopped out, I think they are both very pretty charts. TK pointed USO, although his stance changed to bearish long term. Let's see what happens.
Lasty, the VIX seems to slowing down it's downward movement. Beginning of Bottom? Good Lucky.
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/13/morties-...
http://www.screencast.com/users/brettiquette/fo...
picture of that...
So for Tuesday’s trading, let’s remember these numbers:
> 907: gap fill
907: R1
904: 61.8% Fib
897: 50% Fib
886: intraday pivot
874: S1
www.inthepinktrading.com
that's a good thing!
http://screencast.com/t/1bVQVOnYiC
...hmmmmmm
Asia is up strong. Singapore is out of recession with strongest growth in 6 years.
Personally, BSE is up strongly. The leader in Asia, Kospi, is only up 0.5% while the rest are up 1.5++. This is what you like to see if your short.
Anyway, I could be wrong and this isn't a bounce and a major reversal. If it is my stops will take me out. What can I do until then?
Good luck.
I looked through the economic bulletin and was amused at how no data points were provided for export performance. Presumably Singapore can stage an genuine economic recovery without the participation of its biggest contributor to GDP...
"Notwithstanding the improved performance in the second quarter, the outlook for the rest of the year remains largely unchanged - of a weak recovery susceptible to downside risks. For instance, rising unemployment and reduced household spending in the advanced economies such as the US and the Eurozone reflect continued weaknesses in the global economy. Housing markets in many leading economies have yet to bottom out, while financial institutions are still in the process of deleveraging. At this juncture, there is no evidence yet of a decisive improvement in final demand.
A sizeable part of Singapore' s manufacturing uptick in the first half of 2009 came from a spike in biomedical manufacturing output and electronics inventory restocking, both of which may not be sustained."
I can agree with you, not sure how they are out of a recession when they require consumption from their exports. Wages there are very low.
Do they do mini index futures? Are they liquid?
- original message -
Subject: [slope] Re: Important Point
Are you planning to hold your short on LLL? I'm probably going to have to close my position. Looks like it's going to open above the trend line I had drawn. We'll see. http://screencast.com/t/br4dNoQDw
Also saw this news fwiw.
7/14/2009 07:56:24 AM
L-3 Communications gets upgrade from J.P. Morgan
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Analysts at J.P. Morgan lifted their rating Tuesday on L-3 Communications to overweight from neutral, citing valuation. "While the company faces some fundamental headwinds, we believe concerns are overblown and find LLL's valuation compelling," they wrote. They also upped their price target on the New York-based defense contractor's stock to $80 from $74. L-3 shares closed Monday at $66.28.
LOL! I sound like the EW guys.
http://www.bostonwealth.net/wp-admin/post.php?a...
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/14/spx-500-...
http://screencast.com/t/2XkGiLN7W
http://screencast.com/t/heJyxINsaDj
anyone have thoughts on these charts? Fundies would suggest buy also to me, as I feel Obama will try to pump 'green' so he can claim he delivered on creating 'green collar' jobs with the stimulus. ENER is kinda ugly, but may be a double bottom that just peeked past
Goldman execs sold $700 million in stock.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/090714/business_us_gold...
http://blog.stocktwits.com/2009/07/market-previ...
On the other hand, you could also look at these numbers and think that businesses are responding correctly to weak sales. Sales down, producer prices up, so let the inventories drop, without replacing them, as quickly as possible. Clear your shelves, then, when demand picks up (think "Back to School"), the increase in price will be justifiable.
Not sure how any of this affects our trading, but it's interesting.
CAT downgrade neg for CMI.
not sure how far we can pull back but this week is going to be volitle.....INTC after hours will have a possible market moving announcement. I cant see how they can give positive guidance..but you just never know.
Although I would like to see a sell of as I am sitting short....I think we stay around the flat to down a little area /ES 893 and wait for INTC after hours
Based off of the move from yesterday to pre-open...I see $89.95 support for the SPY....a break below that level can take us to $89.41 and $88.97.
Might cover my short for now and wait and see how the day plays out. Will give it a little room to wiggle around first.
GL
would be in the AM though.... Right now I'm sitting in a small short @
896.25, looking for about 3 pts target. This VWAP oscillation is a
killer
next few days I believe we need to hit the top of the channel; not
much higher though
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/07/chinese-s...