Tim, regarding your "we learned ZILCH" post. Yes, I completely agree. I am as frustrated as you are that we had this massive credit crisis and we learned very little. What little we learned, the value of saving, is more a result of inability to borrow and loss of earnings power than a realization that you are better off spending only what you can earn.
I have always held the opinion that the country needed someone to hit them with a 2x4 on their head; that happened last Fall. Sadly, that wasn't enough. But our bad habits can't continue. Which means we need a bigger hit on our collective head to learn enough to regain our senses. Only problem is, when that happens, it may not matter whether you were a bear or a bull -- most of us will suffer. Funny I'm saying this in 2009. I thought we already went through enough to wake us all up. The higher powers are clearly working hard to keep stock prices up. Between China and US, we saw over 2 Trillion dollars of stimulus introduced into the global economy this year. That money has to go somewhere. It is not going into our paychecks. It is not going into company coffers as revenues. Stocks and commodities is where it is flowing into.
We took a dangerous turn in the last 9 months. The opportunity to learn from past mistakes was blown away. Instead, everything is being done to ignore the problem and treat it as a silly inconvenience on our path to debt based prosperity.
yazzer
· 5 months ago
Now I gotta switch from Pinot Noir to Boone's Farm...
Bear
· 5 months ago
:-)
opalchip
· 5 months ago
I also pushed this H&S pattern with very large positions - got creamed since last Thursday. Probably my worst week ever. I'll be daytrading for 5 or 6 weeks just to make back what I lost on this "pattern". It was a tough fakeout, because my gut told me very strongly that this rally had legs as far back as last Friday - but there was just nothing technically to corroborate that until yesterday close and today. So for 5 days I've been arguing with myself over how to handle it. Now we have a broken major downtrend line and a session close above the right shoulder. I can't justify shorting into this anymore. Today I mostly got whacked because I was trying to push my regular 8 to 10 tick scalping signals into long term shorts, and that was just plain stupid. I even completely missed a couple of Buy Longs because I had Shorting on the brain. Oh well, back on planet earth now. C'est La Vie.
da_bear
· 5 months ago
Got anal raped today.
ChickenLittle
· 5 months ago
that is such a harsh a term, how about we tone it down a bit. You got a little man love today.
Giledain
· 5 months ago
Man? All I saw doing the raping were bulls. With horns.
canuslupis
· 5 months ago
I got a little "man love" myself today. I'm swearing off the 3X vehicles. I'll live to fight another day - minus two limbs and my first born male offspring.
yazzer
· 5 months ago
Head and Shoulders got bought out by Selsun Blue and left a ring around the collar...&^^%&*
Insect Overlord
· 5 months ago
I've been away all day. It seems to happen that when I'm "fully loaded" and a historic market event unfolds, two things are likely the case: 1. I have unavoidable business that takes me away from the market; and 2. the 'historic event' moves opposite the way I'm positioned.
I'm still in the game, but I got absolutely destroyed today. Absolutely. Destroyed. And I feel like an idiot. I've learned a lot, and I still have a lot to learn.
heywally
· 5 months ago
Experience (and surviving) is definitely the key in trading. My condolences on your losses. What I've learned in ten years (you may have more experience than me - I'm not preaching):
- the markets are always changing - strong conviction can get you into a lot of trouble - try to be at least 50% in cash - on any given day, there is usually nothing close to a strong correlation between the apparent macro fundamentals and the market movement for that day - there are too many variables causing market movement - selectivity: buy extreme weakness, sell extreme strength. Don't take profits too quickly. - don't put on a full position right away - 'scalping' is the most difficult trading possible - too large of a position requires too tight of a stop - keep your # of positions manageable so that tweaking your stops is not a burden - avoid spending too much time reading stories and opinions that strongly reinforce your own bias - don't rely too heavily on charts, depending on the type of market and news environment - don't take too seriously longer range market predictions - things can change in a heartbeat - don't project future economic conditions based on today's apparent fundamentals
My paper losses look brutal also but keep up there Insect. As I wrote on another blog, I am taking my daughter to tennis. Where I will also probably get hit in the balls, just like today.
thejuice
· 5 months ago
I feel your pain insect. I had my biggest short position of the year and of course it turns out to be a anomaly of a market day F$$K! So, I have now wiped out half my profits for the year and have a long road to recovery :(.
TraderTamas
· 5 months ago
Where were your stops?
Insect Overlord
· 5 months ago
My stops were set and they all triggered today. Some at the opening bell. So my stops did prevent me from losing more. I also made the mistake of playing chicken with a train. I bought a call on QID about 40 minutes after the opening bell. What really killed me though was the massive gap up and that all my positions were bearish. I actually bought a call on AMZN on Friday that I sold on Monday (like an idiot) rather than just updating my stops, which I always harp on. Naturally, that position, had I kept it open by updating stops instead of just taking profits, would have offset my losses today. I'm going to take this as an opportunity to learn, "reset my clock" a little, and improve.
stxinon
· 5 months ago
Gap opening hurts max.... you feel even like moron when your market stop order is executed at trash rates....
jfyhrie
· 5 months ago
Funny, exact thing always happens to me. I had bought 2000 TB for 48.45 last Friday. Was going out of town this week, so decided to sell at 48.85 on Monday. Made the mistake of shorting 3000 COF and 30 GMCR puts yesterday. Then COF becomes one of the primary catalysts for the move today....all while I'm out of town and don't have the ability to monitor.
I should have learned from the previous 1000 times I've done this, but I'm thick headed I guess.
gannsecret
· 5 months ago
Hang in there bears ! The top is in or will be in the next 10 trading hours. More important than that is the decline that is coming. Is it a retracement followed by a further upmove or the start of the next downleg? This chart gives me reason to add some shorts
Darn, your work is pretty good!!! Hadn't reflected on that 'coincidence.' That, your Fib cycles, and 933 target are compelling. I might be getting short earlier than thought. Again, thanks, Jim
gannsecret
· 5 months ago
Thanks, VJ the real question is what the next decline holds for us. I have a cycle low due tues/wed and then an upmove until the 24th. These 2 legs will be huge in showing us the current state of the mkt.
VirginiaJim
· 5 months ago
Tim, I greatly appreciate your site and the opportunity to read and post. The graciousness you display is similarly displayed by the enjoyable and capable persons your site attracts. You'll bounce back. Its getting volatile and you could easily wake up Monday 8% ahead rather than 8% behind. You're not wrong, just early.
Thanks, Jim
FlyEaglesFly
· 5 months ago
I think we went up right after the poor sportsmanship "Let them burn" video was posted.
loaf_of_bread
· 5 months ago
That is non sense and a slap in the face of our friend tim , I think you should humbly retract your post.
Tim Knight
· 5 months ago
OK, karma has been served. Happy?
FlyEaglesFly
· 5 months ago
Karma served yes
Happy -- Defintely %$^^#@ not !!
YogiBehr
· 5 months ago
Hang in there Tim...I think you are one outgoing funny and intelligent dude...every Bear has his day...it just hasn't been the last couple is all....hope you got out of harms way as best as possible.
Soljer7
· 5 months ago
Tim, I am fairly new to trading but wanted to say that I have been monitoring all the posts for the last few days and through the posts, the incorporation of the trading rules you offer, and by researching the insights noted, the discussions have really been helpful to me. Thank you to the SOH Community for the help and info you provide-
Count_de_Monee
· 5 months ago
Tim, at least you are not alone. Misery loves company, right?
We should start a support group for bears that feel raped after this week (animal sexual abuse is a double sin, no?)
Bear
· 5 months ago
only in some states ...(pun intended) ... ;-)
Tim Knight
· 5 months ago
Not a single remark about today's special logo!
Madison
· 5 months ago
Sorry Tim, I was so depressed I didn't notice the logo.
viscous
· 5 months ago
LOL!!!
YogiBehr
· 5 months ago
It's awesome...
Rd99Hse1
· 5 months ago
I like it. It should stay that way when volatility is fuc*ed.
Dr Livesey
· 5 months ago
Tim a greate logo, you did it by yourself???
toad37
· 5 months ago
The car is off the tracks? That is funny! :)
YogiBehr
· 5 months ago
I think it's always been off the tracks...only now instead of money flying out it's throwing out cuss words...
toad37
· 5 months ago
Oh! :-)
WilliamGCash
· 5 months ago
Lol, nice subtle changes.
carebear2000
· 5 months ago
Everybody just take a hit and chill
Ali
· 5 months ago
Well said.
Rd99Hse1
· 5 months ago
i do that after my afternoon run. (hours after, for my lungs' sake)
WilliamGCash
· 5 months ago
It's more fun if you do it before your afternoon run.
InthePink
· 5 months ago
important thing is we live to trade another day
Flatlander
· 5 months ago
The good news is all my stops got hit yesterday early afternoon. Also good news is I decided to stay in cash since I would be away from the computer. Yes it would be better to have gone long, but my heart would not have been in it.
I've never believed in "luck" and I still don't, but decided to appease the "bulltard spirits" with a minor sacrifice. For the first time since college (circa 1974) I got a haircut from someone who is not a professional barber.
With Mrs. Flatlander donning the shears, I now have a nice "burr" cut. My lovely locks have been tossed to the wind. This makes me a good half inch shorter than I was yesterday, not to mention about a pound lighter.
There bulls. Take my good looks and be gone. Let the market once again revert to nature and head to the south and once again embarass the evil talking heads.
mikevadon
· 5 months ago
James just went to cash. James is a little known name on Wall Street, but he has made some amazing calls shorting the banks in December and predicting the March bottom. He has went to cash today and turned bear.
I was bearish on Monday but quickly reversed my position when the morning high was busted. My best strategy is playing the odds. If the market has been down 4 - 6 days in a row you better have tight stops if you're short.
Count_de_Monee
· 5 months ago
I don't like your chart TT. Could you please flip it upside down? Much obliged.
Ali
· 5 months ago
Do you subscribe to Retracement Levels?
TraderTamas
· 5 months ago
I don't subscribe to anything.
Ali
· 5 months ago
LOL! A simple no would have sufficed.
Rd99Hse1
· 5 months ago
..."just call me snake" *deep, raspy voice*
Tim Knight
· 5 months ago
Snake Pliskin? I thought you were dead! Subtle glance at Adrienne Barbeau
toad37
· 5 months ago
"I get that alot."
- Snake
The Stimulus Plan
· 5 months ago
Don't tell me we are going to shoot straight up and test the 95!!! The pain!!
MovinFwd
· 5 months ago
Good job playing what you see, TT.
The Stimulus Plan
· 5 months ago
I don't believe It's over just yet. Although, I am down 16% by the same vehicle that net me 16% profit last month - it's sad to see numerous right calls I made last month get wiped in 3 days. I still think we are headed south despite the recent bullish move.
nickallan
· 5 months ago
We may not have to wait for Citigroup. CIT will do just fine. Bankruptcy likely?
Tim - it takes a man to admit it when he is hurting. Kudos to you for saying in public that you were on the wrong side of the trade. My hats off to you.
Volume came roaring back into the markets today with INTC as the catalyst. Banks screamed higher and their options screamed even higher with strong results expected from JPM tomorrow. C alone traded like 2 million options contracts. I think we might have completed the handle of the cup and if we have a high volume confirmation of this move higher in what IBD would call a follow up day - we're in a confirmed CWH pattern breakout in the indexes.
Best to all.
kkmoney
· 5 months ago
Tim, what about your USO call...that was a great call, but the stop was just a bit too tight...huge run from what may have been the short term bottom for oil. My hope is that the last three days are teh bull trap equivalent to what happened to the bears...that would definitely take the most moeny from the most people as Im sure a lot of bears who got short anticipating the break got stopped out and the bulls from today will likely be freaked out if we reapproach teh neck
Instead of Head and Shoulders, I think this may be the Hunchback formation....a truly deformed beast
Rd99Hse1
· 5 months ago
I was short, but only took a mild kick in the nuts after scaling back and taking profit last week.
I read somewhere that there will be H&S naysayers (and feel the same way still) while we bears get whipped around. I don't think it's all over for that formation. It was so toppy and large that it will play out in some form. Of course, my money IS now where my mouth is. So, I will accept a kick in the mouth if/when I am incorrect in the coming weeks.
...(my $DIA puts entered yesterday are out to December)
foelogic
· 5 months ago
Pocket AA, Broken
I feel like right now like I had pocket A's in a game of no-limit hold em. Went all in with one other person, who a happened to get a straight on the river. OUCH. I have been faked out TWICE now in the last month. Good Lord have mercy. I guess trends and formations mean nothing right now.
Bear
· 5 months ago
Tim ...
Glad that you can press forward (even in these circumstances) by continuing to post a variety of trading ideas and basically keep the blog moving on a tough day (like this one) ...
Spend some time with Mrs. Bear and the cubbies ... the markets can wait for us to grab money out of them tomorrow ...
Tim Knight
· 5 months ago
I'm getting an interesting combination of emails:
(1) People saying keep your chin up;
(2) People saying I told you so, you bears are toast.
YogiBehr
· 5 months ago
(2) = Dicks
those "neener neener" kids are the ones we used to hang from the basketball hoops by their underwear in elementary school
Dr Livesey
· 5 months ago
I am waiting for the next correction, to close my shorts - can't imagine that we will run into 980-1000 area without a stop/correction.
Ali
· 5 months ago
You should take particular encouragement from the second variety. It's when the bulltards are at their most obnoxious that the trap door will open.
johnnywalker
· 5 months ago
Do keep your chin up , most of the sheisters saying i told you so wish they had been long.
Jigsaw
· 5 months ago
You've been doing better than I have. Been getting slammed through this whole year :(
stxinon
· 5 months ago
Does psychological profiling of user's comments give any ideas about market direction ?
Like say you get 100 emails, and 70% of them say chin up and 30% say you bears are toast... or say 30% say chin up and 70% say say you bears are toast... does this attitude division means anything as market movement insight ?
da_bear
· 5 months ago
This week all got started by the damn mother #&*kers Goldman Sach.
MarioChalmers
· 5 months ago
And what's her name, the banking analyst who shall remain nameless from now on. I can't even say it anymore without wanting to vomit.
ChickenLittle
· 5 months ago
Posted this over at moo's place, thought it may be helpful here if you are trying to short this market with inverse ETFs, as they are subject to time decay also. Very simplified explanation.
-------------------------------------
yeah, it happens. They have to buy additional positions at the end of each day. Today for instance, since SH is down, they will have to buy additional exposure to have the same daily exposure to the S&P 500 tomorrow.
ex Yesterday at close SH=100 S&P=100
Today SH = 97 S&P = 103 At the close add +6 to SH to get it back to parity with the S&P
There is now an extra 6 units of exposure to the S&P500 in SH.
Ergo you could have bought at the start of the trading day today, have another big down day tomorrow and you would have lost more than you would have expected because the pure exposure inside the fund has increased even though your dollar exposure hasn't. The greater the volatility of the underlying index, the more observable this is. Check out IYR and compare it to SRPIX and you will see what I am talking about.
That said, I still think it is probably the best tool to short the market, especially if you are in an IRA .
Greenlander report says "hang in there". But not for too long.
Snookums
· 5 months ago
The market is cruel. My $.02 FWIW, probably not much. When the SPX jumped above the 200 dma last month, I was surprised because I expected a sharp bounce down when it hit the 200 dma. But the market just kept drifting down during the past 3 weeks - following the descending pattern of the 200 dma but staying above it for the most part (consistent with a bullish outlook) - and at the same time carving out a definite H&S pattern (consistent with a bearish outlook). The drop last week below 880 to 869 definitely looked like the bearish outlook had prevailed and the beginning of a big drop down to 800 or below. But I kept wondering because of the close proximity of the 200 dma (and closing above the 200 dma most days). With hindsight, I suspect the market was just pausing until an opportune time to resume the uptrend that started on March 7th.
Many believe that there will be a retest of SPX 666 or at least a retest of SPX 800. I agree but I now think it will probably take 6-12 months, following another strong upward surge to at least SPX 1100 and maybe as high as 1300. Despite the huge deficit and all the other reasons why the market should go down, if the economy shows signs of recovering during the next 6-12 months, I think there's a small chance of a run-up all the way to 1550 (over the next couple years) that would put in a triple top for the next 20 years or more.
loaf_of_bread
· 5 months ago
I can see as far as 1100 and the top some where between 62% and 74% retrace, many moons from now.
evolnomis
· 5 months ago
REPOST:
Tim,
give me your take on the strength in the VIX...huge bullish candle off support today...i feel that there are 2 possible reasons for it..
1. the obvious reason would be that its a bearish divergence with SPX which means that today's move is bullshit and we will reverse back down very soon and fast...meaning that as soon as tomorrow, we can have a huge decline
2. or it might just mean that the VIX has finally decoupled from SPX...and is going to trade sideways without care to SPX....
if you look at the ISEE (call /put ratio) u can see that calls are still being bought at a faster pace throughout the day vs puts for equities...and only in the indexes are the puts in control. weird...
Gumbo YaYa
· 5 months ago
Evolmonis,
I saw the same thing & agree with #1. There is some 'hope' in that analysis, but that's my take on the divergence with the VIX today. It was up most of the day while the gap up & then push higher continued. Maybe all the buyers are in now (please).
ropey
· 5 months ago
JPM 0.04 0.44 1.31 2.87 7 Days Ago 0.04 0.44 1.29 2.87 30 Days Ago 0.37 0.40 1.58 2.78 60 Days Ago 0.32 0.36 1.48 2.71 90 Days Ago 0.35
They've lowered the bar on JPM so much they are going to trounce ( whisper of 0.24) Not good ( i'm a bear still ) but this is going to be more drivel to drive things up tomorrow yet again..
TickerStreet
· 5 months ago
I think that may be a typo of JPM expectations. I checked WFC, BAC expectations which have been raised in the last 30 days.
ropey
· 5 months ago
Hope so, would be ridiculous with such a drop in a short period of time although earnings.com is reporting the same 0.04
WilliamGCash
· 5 months ago
They lowered because JPM said they had to pay 27 cents per share when the repaid the TARP. Its also expected that they paid roughly another 12 cents per share to the FDIC.
WilliamGCash
· 5 months ago
They lowered because JPM said they had to pay 27 cents per share when the repaid the TARP. Its also expected that they paid roughly another 12 cents per share to the FDIC.
Just wait till they announce unemployment has hit double digits in tomorrow's report...F 'em
twelve02
· 5 months ago
I don't think the market cares...
pikertrader
· 5 months ago
Yaz man thats lagging it doesn't mean anything. Who cares if people are unemployed, its a silly indicator anyway.
MovinFwd
· 5 months ago
Ya, I know it really doesn't matter.
Son laid off permanently. His wife laid off too - no wait she's called back for two months until they can close the doors.
Son-in-law laid off permanently. Daughter working every other week - no wait she is going back full time next week. Ya sure - that place announced closes permanently in 2 years.
Another daughter living in basement. Working part time at the mall. Made $22.00 last week.
Son working full time. Decent job. Wife full time too. No wait - yesterday the company announced closing. Out of work in two weeks. (Wife and I think company is outsourcing medical coding job to overseas - now why the heck would we get an idea like that)
Where are all the jobs promised ?
yazzer
· 5 months ago
yup - real unemployment may be at 15% now - we just don't know it yet....but, not to fear, the government will bail us all out and we'll be playing harps in fields of poppies come next Spring...LOL...
MyLifeMyTrade
· 5 months ago
Tim - you are not the only one who left a ton of money in TBT on the table. I got into 6 contracts of Jul 48 calls at 1.20 and sold them yesterday at open for 2.05 - guess how much they are worth now... more than 5 bucks...left $1800 on the table... I closed my position for less than 25% of what I could have made total
okay, was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? (Germans?), it's not OVER......ahhhhhh
nummy
· 5 months ago
dont worry TK, it happens to the best of us. you will redeem yourself eventually. i wouldn't be surprised to hear you saying "the best three days of my trading life so far" in the near future.
ricco
· 5 months ago
Tim, Snap out of it!! (brotherly smack to the side of your head).
Tim Knight
· 5 months ago
Oww! Runs off to a corner, sobbing uncontrollably
ricco
· 5 months ago
Man! (running to the kitchen to get you some Oreos and a glass of milk)...we will see it much clearer tomorrow.
Tim Knight
· 5 months ago
I want a straw with my milk. A Krazy Straw, please. And another box of Oreos. Sniff!
ISLDGUY
· 5 months ago
Somebody help me. Probably someone will tell me it has something to do with options expiration, but why is it that the Vix rises on a day like today, and has the shit kicked out of it in the days previous. What's happening?
i have no clue, but could be a red flag for this bullish run....wait til next Mon.
YogiBehr
· 5 months ago
What is the Inverse ETF for the Techs? 2x and 3x if possible
MyLifeMyTrade
· 5 months ago
2x -> QID 3x -> TYP 4x -> WIP (no thats not a ticker; it means work-in-progress - LOL)
YogiBehr
· 5 months ago
I'm hoping they eventually come out with a 5x~~> STA (Spank That Azz) LOL
and thanks for those up there
kkmoney
· 5 months ago
TYP is one or you can do inverse nasdaq
YogiBehr
· 5 months ago
cool...thanks...SSG is another but for semiconductors...hehehe...
MyLifeMyTrade
· 5 months ago
2x -> QID 3x -> TYP
jamesmarkii
· 5 months ago
Dow +540 and +58 on SPX in 3 days... wtf is going on?
MyLifeMyTrade
· 5 months ago
Bulls want to reverse the 3-sigma move from last fall
toad37
· 5 months ago
Computer programs can very easily manipulate a low volume market. F'in fraudster Goldman Sucks!
twelve02
· 5 months ago
The market is going to FUCK the most amount of people, shorts covering, Bulls piling on, the cycle continues...
vodka_tonic
· 5 months ago
AWESOME POST TIM....i totally share and commiserate....i was short YM from yesterday and closed near the high today....just god awful trading and one which blew a good chunk of my account away. the sad part is i felt this bull run coming since last night, ever since the futures blew up, and like a rookie i didn't want to take the pain and kept on hoping and not looking at the screen........oh well, i do feel optimistic about my IBM short though.....tomorrow will tell....where's that bottle of Vodka for now :)
Clocktower
· 5 months ago
Do you think Crude Oil can get above the most recent high of CL 72.69 printed on June 11th?
Ali
· 5 months ago
If it got anywhere near there, I would short the sh-t out of it
SeaDog
· 5 months ago
I'm short the ES from $928
Oh Please...oh please............
Gumbo YaYa
· 5 months ago
Tim,
Love the logo. I think we all would have been more enthusiastic about it if it had played out in the market like that. I guess timing is everything, just as in the market. The bear's timing sucked on this one, and that includes me.
greivousbodilyharm
· 5 months ago
Hey, I've been buring for a while now (fuck me and fuck oil btw..), but the writing was on the wall for a major reversal, as early as late last week. Key support level of /ES 875 held for a few days in a row, along with resistance at 915, between was nothing but air. SPY and DIA max pain also pointed to higher levels. Did I go long, hell no, but the clues were there.
viscous
· 5 months ago
Hindsight is always 20/20. :o|
ppo_hack
· 5 months ago
Have been following your blog for a LONG time but never posted. Thought I'd start today. I must say your blog is the most useful and has helped me get my head screwed on back correctly many a time. I too am in general a depressive kind of chap and this post resonated especially well. It captures my state of mind most (!!) of the time (sad to say).
Have to yet get an avatar. My screen name (ppo_hack) roughly represents my primary trading method, I try to get in when price gets out of whack with the 20dma (I use price percentage oscillator) and keep adding positions until I can't sleep. It served me well earlier this yr (but not in the last 3 mos) , but unfortunately most of the times I'm in the red (and depressed) until it violently swings back when I start closing positions a bit too early. I got badly caught for a long time on the wrong side with the recent runup in oil.
You mention TBT, just wondering why you don't trade ZB (futures) since you do look at ES. I had a bit of good luck with ZB recently. Also just initiated an ES and YM short today, let's see. If history is any indication, I will be in for some pain.
Stringmusic24
· 5 months ago
check out JCP. Beautiful long candidate for the swing trader.
YogiBehr
· 5 months ago
I've been watching that on a simple TL...still waiting...but it's getting closer for my decision one way or the other
same here. Looking forward to the break, could be meaty.
loaf_of_bread
· 5 months ago
Let us get one thing right, there was never a head and shoulder looking chart on the naz composite...this is one third of the market...The arms index has been screaming carefull bears for weeks. It is just the intensity of the rise not the direction. Yes I was fooled also , I was looking for gap fill at 919 and close 914 but INTEL blew that out the window with their rise yesterday. Let me also say there is a 75% chance that the wensday the week before op ex WILL MARK THE LOW, IF it is trending down .WILL REVERSE going into opex... always always PAY ATTENTION to what I posted concerning that DAY IT WILL SAVE YOU thousand, IT took me years to fully comprehind that one fact.
Tim Knight
· 5 months ago
That caps lock key is really having trouble today!
loaf_of_bread
· 5 months ago
I use cap locks once in a hundred posts to make a very importent point about WWW, er weird wollie wensday the pay day for option sellers the week before op ex , A very important day indeed. I will go out on a limb if next week the post option expiration does not trade under 896 youwill not see under WWW 869 for over a year.
stxinon
· 5 months ago
please spell check before commenting.. reading you is a capital punishment...
loaf_of_bread
· 5 months ago
I am a chity speller...sorry ...just check wth Ashok he knows me better than most , ask him if I am a straight shooter or not .
FluffyPup
· 5 months ago
" IF it is trending down " How far down where we today? this week?
loaf_of_bread
· 5 months ago
If the the market is trending down going into www , then there is a great 75% chance it will mark the low going into opex. .... www is the week before opex... in this case 869 .
stxinon
· 5 months ago
Say 869 on S&P... and how much of your life saving would you like to bet on it ??? Just tell in %. say 75% .......
what you are suffering is called position psychosis.... If I bought too many July puts.... simple.... Too late to sell and feeling very bad.....
I am biased towards bear/bull because I have that position bought... simple...
Cool trader is balanced in both cases and does not have biases or opinions... Chill back.... and save your energy for tomorrow's trade... Else you shall be Goldman Sach's food...
If you do not believe me ask around to other people...
Bear
· 5 months ago
I get the feeling that you do not read blog posts here ...
fwiw ... many here have mentioned oversold condition of NASDAQ ... I personally posted about it on Sunday with a big chart (it was the first post in clear view of anyone reading the blog regularly) ... I also mentioned the precariousness of OpEx ...
loaf_of_bread
· 5 months ago
I do read almost every thing, just that I had some acid reflux and got some food in my lungs and have been very sick for two weeks, alas I was trying to make the point about the phatom h&s formation that so many were trying to force on the market and the importance of the low made on www and also this is a very hard market to trade so I do not post comments in replies to people I just do not have the time ina fast moveing market, this does not mean I donot care what you post Little Fish. Take care , and good tradeing to ya.
less than 500 shares traded since close. Should revert to the close.
YogiBehr
· 5 months ago
true...didn't see that...
theFADE
· 5 months ago
so what's ur outlook at his point, TK.
still slightly bearish going into tomorrow?
Jull
· 5 months ago
It's crazy how ppl got bullish from bearish so fast, there is something insane in this. It smells like mass manipulation
Tathata
· 5 months ago
Tim, I agree with you brother. It is frustrating to scratch for a few points here and there, then to have the hammer dropped on you and have a vertical climb that is technically unfathomable. I have decreased my trading activity markedly because of these recent disconnects, in order to avoid the fatigue that I believe is being engineered. Hang in there my friend and go grab a workout if your toe allows it.
By the way, has anyone seen any of those CDO's hanging around lately or were they all defused...?
ppo_hack
· 5 months ago
Have been following your blog for a LONG time but never posted. Thought I'd start today. I must say your blog is the most useful and has helped me get my head screwed on back correctly many a time. I too am in general a depressive kind of chap and this post resonated especially well. It captures my state of mind most (!!) of the time (sad to say).
Have to yet get an avatar. My screen name (ppo_hack) roughly represents my primary trading method, I try to get in when price gets out of whack with the 20dma (I use price percentage oscillator) and keep adding positions until I can't sleep. It served me well earlier this yr (but not in the last 3 mos) , but unfortunately most of the times I'm in the red (and depressed) until it violently swings back when I start closing positions a bit too early. I got badly caught for a long time on the wrong side with the recent runup in oil.
You mention TBT, just wondering why you don't trade ZB (futures) since you do look at ES. I had a bit of good luck with ZB recently. Also just initiated an ES and YM short today, let's see. If history is any indication, I will be in for some pain.
Brinkley
· 5 months ago
Just wanted to say welcome, and glad you've decided to start posting, since it is the positive and constructive interaction here than makes the Slope unique. Do work on the avatar if you want to escape lots of nagging from Slopers, however-- it is sort of an obsession around here ; ).
buygold
· 5 months ago
Volume was quite low on many indices. We had a lot of short covering today. Until we get volume confirming price we are in the dark.
Volume was solid on the Nasdaq, and about average on the NYSE although still stronger than in recent sessions. For mid-July it was more than respectable and above levels on recent down days, fwiw.
viscous
· 5 months ago
Go away, and don’t come back until you have something bearish to say! :o)
Brinkley
· 5 months ago
Grr.
Bear
· 5 months ago
I agree with brinkley ... NASDAQ volume was actually quite good ...
Brinkley you are right...I am looking at final volume and it did come in higher than average...but it wasn't anything impressive. But it does make the case of a H and S failure stronger.
Bear
· 5 months ago
NASDAQ volume was the highest it has been since early May ... and 20% above its 90 day average ... that seems impressive to me ...
Hang in there Tim. Today was ridiculous. But it won't last. Intel revenues were down 15% and net income 35% year over year no matter what all the bulls are saying about what a great quarter it was. It wasn't. The bear is still very much alive. I know you know that too. Peace.
Tim Go look at Evil Speculator. The right shoulder. And the liquidity drain. And the VIX (which closed at a touch below day high). Phi-mate turn date is 17 July. No longer UP imho. Citigroup reports Friday 11:00hrs ET - the reversal?
Brinkley
· 5 months ago
VXN and VXO were down today, and the right shoulder is history. IMO, the reversal came early, and it was up.
tradingwiththeaveragejay
· 5 months ago
Hang in there man you are not alone. I for one can't get a grasp on why this is going to the moon. Maybe a huge short squeeze. There is nothing behind this to hold it up. So many people out there waitting to get back in at the first sign of hope. This is being built on a house of cards. IMHO.
nickallan
· 5 months ago
Neely remains firm that Jun 11 was the top. STU says we are now in final wave C-up for the summer surge. EWavers at odds. Wait for July 17-27 Phi-mate turn date and fib cluster dates is what I believe. Too soon to tell re C-up. Here for more: http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/
Osso
· 5 months ago
spy 92.84
Insect Overlord
· 5 months ago
I kinda don't even know why I'm posting...we technically took out the right shoulder today. But we're still right at very decent resistance. Nevertheless, I'm going to take it easy and trade sparingly. It's just too damn confusing.
Everyone seems to be expecting JPM to beat by a lot tomorrow.
Buy the rumor, sell the news?
thejuice
· 5 months ago
I heard that with INTC also and look what happened. This market is being controled by the media and GS.
Treasurehunter
· 5 months ago
Thank you for all you work Mr Knight. We all like to make $ but if I was in the world poker tour,sometimes the tech approach could be used for the one rigging the game to defeat his opponents, if he anticipated the mindset.
I was thinking about EWI and this comment: Prechter writes about wave 2 in The Elliott Wave Principle (two words have been reversed to apply to bear markets): "At this point, investors are thoroughly convinced that the (bull) market is back to stay. It kinda feels this way today.
stxinon
· 5 months ago
you nailed it....
Imagine if I am GS+PPT and I want a cool trading profits... best thing for me to make a head and shoulder pattern and lure loads of bears and then hack them by jerking market up and squeeze...
Normal poker move... not calculated by TA people...
Now my question to you is simple.... Next time we see Head and Shoulder ..... will it follow the rules of TA or not .......
tradermatt
· 5 months ago
Bear market rallies are built solidly on fear across the spectrum of market participants. Fear on the part of the bulls that they will miss the next cyclical move up, and fear on the part of the bears that their position will be left permanently behind.
Both fears are wrong, of course, but that is what makes it a bear market rally rather than a structural turn.
And since fear is the most primal and powerful of the evolutionary human emotions, these moves are particularly intense.
Up until a few months ago, this bear market was immature, lacking the defining feature of all such markets: the seemingly unrelenting, prolonged countertrend move. She has now matured, but there are some mid-life crises left in this life cycle.
All Comments
I have always held the opinion that the country needed someone to hit them with a 2x4 on their head; that happened last Fall. Sadly, that wasn't enough. But our bad habits can't continue. Which means we need a bigger hit on our collective head to learn enough to regain our senses. Only problem is, when that happens, it may not matter whether you were a bear or a bull -- most of us will suffer. Funny I'm saying this in 2009. I thought we already went through enough to wake us all up. The higher powers are clearly working hard to keep stock prices up. Between China and US, we saw over 2 Trillion dollars of stimulus introduced into the global economy this year. That money has to go somewhere. It is not going into our paychecks. It is not going into company coffers as revenues. Stocks and commodities is where it is flowing into.
We took a dangerous turn in the last 9 months. The opportunity to learn from past mistakes was blown away. Instead, everything is being done to ignore the problem and treat it as a silly inconvenience on our path to debt based prosperity.
I'm still in the game, but I got absolutely destroyed today. Absolutely. Destroyed. And I feel like an idiot. I've learned a lot, and I still have a lot to learn.
- the markets are always changing
- strong conviction can get you into a lot of trouble
- try to be at least 50% in cash
- on any given day, there is usually nothing close to a strong correlation between the apparent macro fundamentals and the market movement for that day - there are too many variables causing market movement
- selectivity: buy extreme weakness, sell extreme strength. Don't take profits too quickly.
- don't put on a full position right away
- 'scalping' is the most difficult trading possible
- too large of a position requires too tight of a stop
- keep your # of positions manageable so that tweaking your stops is not a burden
- avoid spending too much time reading stories and opinions that strongly reinforce your own bias
- don't rely too heavily on charts, depending on the type of market and news environment
- don't take too seriously longer range market predictions
- things can change in a heartbeat
- don't project future economic conditions based on today's apparent fundamentals
there's a few more but I'm getting boring
Talking Bird : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIIXXTqGCpg
What really killed me though was the massive gap up and that all my positions were bearish. I actually bought a call on AMZN on Friday that I sold on Monday (like an idiot) rather than just updating my stops, which I always harp on. Naturally, that position, had I kept it open by updating stops instead of just taking profits, would have offset my losses today.
I'm going to take this as an opportunity to learn, "reset my clock" a little, and improve.
you feel even like moron when your market stop order is executed at trash rates....
I should have learned from the previous 1000 times I've done this, but I'm thick headed I guess.
More important than that is the decline that is coming.
Is it a retracement followed by a further upmove or the start of the next downleg?
This chart gives me reason to add some shorts
http://www.screencast.com/users/ganns/folders/J...
I have a cycle low due tues/wed and then an upmove until the 24th.
These 2 legs will be huge in showing us the current state of the mkt.
Thanks, Jim
Happy -- Defintely %$^^#@ not !!
I am fairly new to trading but wanted to say that I have been monitoring all the posts for the last few days and through the posts, the incorporation of the trading rules you offer, and by researching the insights noted, the discussions have really been helpful to me. Thank you to the SOH Community for the help and info you provide-
We should start a support group for bears that feel raped after this week (animal sexual abuse is a double sin, no?)
I've never believed in "luck" and I still don't, but decided to appease the "bulltard spirits" with a minor sacrifice. For the first time since college (circa 1974) I got a haircut from someone who is not a professional barber.
With Mrs. Flatlander donning the shears, I now have a nice "burr" cut. My lovely locks have been tossed to the wind. This makes me a good half inch shorter than I was yesterday, not to mention about a pound lighter.
There bulls. Take my good looks and be gone. Let the market once again revert to nature and head to the south and once again embarass the evil talking heads.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/spx-earning...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&b=9&g...
And here's what it looks like today: http://i29.tinypic.com/246qsk6.jpg
I was bearish on Monday but quickly reversed my position when the morning high was busted. My best strategy is playing the odds. If the market has been down 4 - 6 days in a row you better have tight stops if you're short.
Could you please flip it upside down? Much obliged.
- Snake
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE5...
Volume came roaring back into the markets today with INTC as the catalyst. Banks screamed higher and their options screamed even higher with strong results expected from JPM tomorrow. C alone traded like 2 million options contracts. I think we might have completed the handle of the cup and if we have a high volume confirmation of this move higher in what IBD would call a follow up day - we're in a confirmed CWH pattern breakout in the indexes.
Best to all.
Instead of Head and Shoulders, I think this may be the Hunchback formation....a truly deformed beast
I read somewhere that there will be H&S naysayers (and feel the same way still) while we bears get whipped around. I don't think it's all over for that formation. It was so toppy and large that it will play out in some form. Of course, my money IS now where my mouth is. So, I will accept a kick in the mouth if/when I am incorrect in the coming weeks.
...(my $DIA puts entered yesterday are out to December)
I feel like right now like I had pocket A's in a game of no-limit hold em. Went all in with one other person, who a happened to get a straight on the river. OUCH. I have been faked out TWICE now in the last month. Good Lord have mercy. I guess trends and formations mean nothing right now.
Glad that you can press forward (even in these circumstances) by continuing to post a variety of trading ideas and basically keep the blog moving on a tough day (like this one) ...
Spend some time with Mrs. Bear and the cubbies ... the markets can wait for us to grab money out of them tomorrow ...
(1) People saying keep your chin up;
(2) People saying I told you so, you bears are toast.
those "neener neener" kids are the ones we used to hang from the basketball hoops by their underwear in elementary school
give any ideas about market direction ?
Like say you get 100 emails, and 70% of them say chin up and 30% say you bears are toast...
or say 30% say chin up and 70% say say you bears are toast...
does this attitude division means anything as market movement insight ?
-------------------------------------
yeah, it happens. They have to buy additional positions at the end of each day. Today for instance, since SH is down, they will have to buy additional exposure to have the same daily exposure to the S&P 500 tomorrow.
ex
Yesterday at close SH=100 S&P=100
Today SH = 97 S&P = 103
At the close add +6 to SH to get it back to parity with the S&P
There is now an extra 6 units of exposure to the S&P500 in SH.
Ergo you could have bought at the start of the trading day today, have another big down day tomorrow and you would have lost more than you would have expected because the pure exposure inside the fund has increased even though your dollar exposure hasn't. The greater the volatility of the underlying index, the more observable this is. Check out IYR and compare it to SRPIX and you will see what I am talking about.
That said, I still think it is probably the best tool to short the market, especially if you are in an IRA .
Greenlander report says "hang in there".
But not for too long.
Many believe that there will be a retest of SPX 666 or at least a retest of SPX 800. I agree but I now think it will probably take 6-12 months, following another strong upward surge to at least SPX 1100 and maybe as high as 1300. Despite the huge deficit and all the other reasons why the market should go down, if the economy shows signs of recovering during the next 6-12 months, I think there's a small chance of a run-up all the way to 1550 (over the next couple years) that would put in a triple top for the next 20 years or more.
Tim,
give me your take on the strength in the VIX...huge bullish candle off support today...i feel that there are 2 possible reasons for it..
1. the obvious reason would be that its a bearish divergence with SPX which means that today's move is bullshit and we will reverse back down very soon and fast...meaning that as soon as tomorrow, we can have a huge decline
2. or it might just mean that the VIX has finally decoupled from SPX...and is going to trade sideways without care to SPX....
if you look at the ISEE (call /put ratio) u can see that calls are still being bought at a faster pace throughout the day vs puts for equities...and only in the indexes are the puts in control. weird...
I saw the same thing & agree with #1. There is some 'hope' in that analysis, but that's my take on the divergence with the VIX today. It was up most of the day while the gap up & then push higher continued. Maybe all the buyers are in now (please).
0.04 0.44 1.31 2.87
7 Days Ago 0.04 0.44 1.29 2.87
30 Days Ago 0.37 0.40 1.58 2.78
60 Days Ago 0.32 0.36 1.48 2.71
90 Days Ago 0.35
They've lowered the bar on JPM so much they are going to trounce ( whisper of 0.24)
Not good ( i'm a bear still ) but this is going to be more drivel to drive things up tomorrow yet again..
http://themarketbrothers.blogspot.com
Son laid off permanently. His wife laid off too - no wait she's called back for two months until they can close the doors.
Son-in-law laid off permanently. Daughter working every other week - no wait she is going back full time next week. Ya sure - that place announced closes permanently in 2 years.
Another daughter living in basement. Working part time at the mall. Made $22.00 last week.
Son working full time. Decent job. Wife full time too. No wait - yesterday the company announced closing. Out of work in two weeks. (Wife and I think company is outsourcing medical coding job to overseas - now why the heck would we get an idea like that)
Where are all the jobs promised ?
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/15/morties-...
3x -> TYP
4x -> WIP (no thats not a ticker; it means work-in-progress - LOL)
and thanks for those up there
3x -> TYP
wtf is going on?
Oh Please...oh please............
Love the logo. I think we all would have been more enthusiastic about it if it had played out in the market like that. I guess timing is everything, just as in the market. The bear's timing sucked on this one, and that includes me.
Have to yet get an avatar. My screen name (ppo_hack) roughly represents my primary trading method, I try to get in when price gets out of whack with the 20dma (I use price percentage oscillator) and keep adding positions until I can't sleep. It served me well earlier this yr (but not in the last 3 mos) , but unfortunately most of the times I'm in the red (and depressed) until it violently swings back when I start closing positions a bit too early. I got badly caught for a long time on the wrong side with the recent runup in oil.
You mention TBT, just wondering why you don't trade ZB (futures) since you do look at ES. I had a bit of good luck with ZB recently. Also just initiated an ES and YM short today, let's see. If history is any indication, I will be in for some pain.
http://screencast.com/t/bwIKuSevhX
reading you is a capital punishment...
and how much of your life saving would you like to bet on it ???
Just tell in %.
say 75% .......
what you are suffering is called position psychosis....
If I bought too many July puts.... simple....
Too late to sell and feeling very bad.....
I am biased towards bear/bull because I have that position bought...
simple...
Cool trader is balanced in both cases and does not have biases or opinions...
Chill back.... and save your energy for tomorrow's trade...
Else you shall be Goldman Sach's food...
If you do not believe me ask around to other people...
fwiw ... many here have mentioned oversold condition of NASDAQ ... I personally posted about it on Sunday with a big chart (it was the first post in clear view of anyone reading the blog regularly) ... I also mentioned the precariousness of OpEx ...
http://www.screencast.com/users/MovinFwd/folder...
A slightly different picture with Log off :
http://www.screencast.com/users/MovinFwd/folder...
Best Regards
still slightly bearish going into tomorrow?
By the way, has anyone seen any of those CDO's hanging around lately or were they all defused...?
Have to yet get an avatar. My screen name (ppo_hack) roughly represents my primary trading method, I try to get in when price gets out of whack with the 20dma (I use price percentage oscillator) and keep adding positions until I can't sleep. It served me well earlier this yr (but not in the last 3 mos) , but unfortunately most of the times I'm in the red (and depressed) until it violently swings back when I start closing positions a bit too early. I got badly caught for a long time on the wrong side with the recent runup in oil.
You mention TBT, just wondering why you don't trade ZB (futures) since you do look at ES. I had a bit of good luck with ZB recently. Also just initiated an ES and YM short today, let's see. If history is any indication, I will be in for some pain.
http://goldstocktrades.wordpress.com/2009/07/15...
http://finance.yahoo.com/advances?u
http://www.ambgtrading.com/2009/07/whats-workin...
Go look at Evil Speculator.
The right shoulder.
And the liquidity drain.
And the VIX (which closed at a touch below day high).
Phi-mate turn date is 17 July. No longer UP imho.
Citigroup reports Friday 11:00hrs ET - the reversal?
http://screencast.com/t/gMPNEPgMkY
Buy the rumor, sell the news?
We all like to make $ but if I was in the world poker tour,sometimes the tech approach could be used for the one rigging the game to defeat his opponents, if he anticipated the mindset.
I was thinking about EWI and this comment:
Prechter writes about wave 2 in The Elliott Wave Principle (two words have been reversed to apply to bear markets):
"At this point, investors are thoroughly convinced that the (bull) market is back to stay.
It kinda feels this way today.
Imagine if I am GS+PPT and I want a cool trading profits...
best thing for me to make a head and shoulder pattern and lure loads of bears and then
hack them by jerking market up and squeeze...
Normal poker move...
not calculated by TA people...
Now my question to you is simple....
Next time we see Head and Shoulder .....
will it follow the rules of TA or not .......
Both fears are wrong, of course, but that is what makes it a bear market rally rather than a structural turn.
And since fear is the most primal and powerful of the evolutionary human emotions, these moves are particularly intense.
Up until a few months ago, this bear market was immature, lacking the defining feature of all such markets: the seemingly unrelenting, prolonged countertrend move. She has now matured, but there are some mid-life crises left in this life cycle.