Slope of Hope with Tim Knight - Latest Comments in So What Happened?

Re: So What Happened?

gannsecret — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 10:15:23 -0000

Thanks, VJ the real question is what the next decline holds for us.
I have a cycle low due tues/wed and then an upmove until the 24th.
These 2 legs will be huge in showing us the current state of the mkt.

Re: So What Happened?

facesincabs — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 22:03:14 -0000

NASDAQ volume was the highest it has been since early May ... and 20% above its 90 day average ... that seems impressive to me ...

Re: So What Happened?

Brinkley — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 21:08:46 -0000

VXN and VXO were down today, and the right shoulder is history. IMO, the reversal came early, and it was up.

Re: So What Happened?

SwampDrainer2016 — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 19:10:28 -0000

And what's her name, the banking analyst who shall remain nameless from now on. I can't even say it anymore without wanting to vomit.

Re: So What Happened?

SwampDrainer2016 — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 19:02:08 -0000

Good points, I appreciate the post.

Re: So What Happened?

Baby Dragon — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:45:55 -0000

you nailed it....

Imagine if I am GS+PPT and I want a cool trading profits...
best thing for me to make a head and shoulder pattern and lure loads of bears and then
hack them by jerking market up and squeeze...

Normal poker move...
not calculated by TA people...

Now my question to you is simple....
Next time we see Head and Shoulder .....
will it follow the rules of TA or not .......

Re: So What Happened?

loaf_of_bread — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:37:59 -0000

I am a chity speller...sorry ...just check wth Ashok he knows me better than most , ask him if I am a straight shooter or not .

Re: So What Happened?

Baby Dragon — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:37:11 -0000

Gap opening hurts max....
you feel even like moron when your market stop order is executed at trash rates....

Re: So What Happened?

heywally — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:37:01 -0000

Experience (and surviving) is definitely the key in trading. My condolences on your losses. What I've learned in ten years (you may have more experience than me - I'm not preaching):

- the markets are always changing
- strong conviction can get you into a lot of trouble
- try to be at least 50% in cash
- on any given day, there is usually nothing close to a strong correlation between the apparent macro fundamentals and the market movement for that day - there are too many variables causing market movement
- selectivity: buy extreme weakness, sell extreme strength. Don't take profits too quickly.
- don't put on a full position right away
- 'scalping' is the most difficult trading possible
- too large of a position requires too tight of a stop
- keep your # of positions manageable so that tweaking your stops is not a burden
- avoid spending too much time reading stories and opinions that strongly reinforce your own bias
- don't rely too heavily on charts, depending on the type of market and news environment
- don't take too seriously longer range market predictions
- things can change in a heartbeat
- don't project future economic conditions based on today's apparent fundamentals

there's a few more but I'm getting boring

Talking Bird : http://www.youtube.com/watc...

Re: So What Happened?

Baby Dragon — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:30:19 -0000

Say 869 on S&P...
and how much of your life saving would you like to bet on it ???
Just tell in %.
say 75% .......

what you are suffering is called position psychosis....
If I bought too many July puts.... simple....
Too late to sell and feeling very bad.....

I am biased towards bear/bull because I have that position bought...
simple...

Cool trader is balanced in both cases and does not have biases or opinions...
Chill back.... and save your energy for tomorrow's trade...
Else you shall be Goldman Sach's food...

If you do not believe me ask around to other people...

Re: So What Happened?

Insect Overlord — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:30:14 -0000

My stops were set and they all triggered today. Some at the opening bell. So my stops did prevent me from losing more. I also made the mistake of playing chicken with a train. I bought a call on QID about 40 minutes after the opening bell.
What really killed me though was the massive gap up and that all my positions were bearish. I actually bought a call on AMZN on Friday that I sold on Monday (like an idiot) rather than just updating my stops, which I always harp on. Naturally, that position, had I kept it open by updating stops instead of just taking profits, would have offset my losses today.
I'm going to take this as an opportunity to learn, "reset my clock" a little, and improve.

Re: So What Happened?

loaf_of_bread — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:30:09 -0000

I do read almost every thing, just that I had some acid reflux and got some food in my lungs and have been very sick for two weeks, alas I was trying to make the point about the phatom h&s formation that so many were trying to force on the market and the importance of the low made on www and also this is a very hard market to trade so I do not post comments in replies to people I just do not have the time ina fast moveing market, this does not mean I donot care what you post Little Fish. Take care , and good tradeing to ya.

Re: So What Happened?

tradermatt — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:27:53 -0000

Bear market rallies are built solidly on fear across the spectrum of market participants. Fear on the part of the bulls that they will miss the next cyclical move up, and fear on the part of the bears that their position will be left permanently behind.

Both fears are wrong, of course, but that is what makes it a bear market rally rather than a structural turn.

And since fear is the most primal and powerful of the evolutionary human emotions, these moves are particularly intense.

Up until a few months ago, this bear market was immature, lacking the defining feature of all such markets: the seemingly unrelenting, prolonged countertrend move. She has now matured, but there are some mid-life crises left in this life cycle.

Re: So What Happened?

fargo_jim — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:23:51 -0000

Funny, exact thing always happens to me. I had bought 2000 TB for 48.45 last Friday. Was going out of town this week, so decided to sell at 48.85 on Monday. Made the mistake of shorting 3000 COF and 30 GMCR puts yesterday. Then COF becomes one of the primary catalysts for the move today....all while I'm out of town and don't have the ability to monitor.

I should have learned from the previous 1000 times I've done this, but I'm thick headed I guess.

Re: So What Happened?

buygold — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:23:02 -0000

Brinkley you are right...I am looking at final volume and it did come in higher than average...but it wasn't anything impressive. But it does make the case of a H and S failure stronger.

Re: So What Happened?

Baby Dragon — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:23:02 -0000

please spell check before commenting..
reading you is a capital punishment...

Re: So What Happened?

TraderTamas — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:22:54 -0000

Where were your stops?

Re: So What Happened?

Horseofcourse — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:21:50 -0000

Thank you for all you work Mr Knight.
We all like to make $ but if I was in the world poker tour,sometimes the tech approach could be used for the one rigging the game to defeat his opponents, if he anticipated the mindset.

I was thinking about EWI and this comment:
Prechter writes about wave 2 in The Elliott Wave Principle (two words have been reversed to apply to bear markets):
"At this point, investors are thoroughly convinced that the (bull) market is back to stay.
It kinda feels this way today.

Re: So What Happened?

thejuice — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:21:23 -0000

I heard that with INTC also and look what happened. This market is being controled by the media and GS.

Re: So What Happened?

Baby Dragon — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:20:11 -0000

Does psychological profiling of user's comments
give any ideas about market direction ?

Like say you get 100 emails, and 70% of them say chin up and 30% say you bears are toast...
or say 30% say chin up and 70% say say you bears are toast...
does this attitude division means anything as market movement insight ?

Re: So What Happened?

WilliamGCash — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:18:19 -0000

Everyone seems to be expecting JPM to beat by a lot tomorrow.

Buy the rumor, sell the news?

Re: So What Happened?

Tim Knight — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:17:47 -0000

NEW POST

Re: So What Happened?

jamesmarkii — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:16:10 -0000

theres our downmove catalyst

Re: So What Happened?

thejuice — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:15:44 -0000

I feel your pain insect. I had my biggest short position of the year and of course it turns out to be a anomaly of a market day F$$K! So, I have now wiped out half my profits for the year and have a long road to recovery :(.

Re: So What Happened?

Insect Overlord — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:14:17 -0000

I kinda don't even know why I'm posting...we technically took out the right shoulder today. But we're still right at very decent resistance. Nevertheless, I'm going to take it easy and trade sparingly. It's just too damn confusing.

http://screencast.com/t/gMP...